Well this doesn’t look good, what do you think?

[Stuart W]

https://fox59.com/2019/11/25/cummins-plans-to-cut-2000-jobs-worldwide-by-early-2020/

 

[Neal]

It all adds up with the Newmar sale to W, we know MH sales peaked. I didn't expect Cummins would be hit that hard as a side effect as I would think MH sales are a minor part of their business. With Cummins such a large provider of Diesel engines (and other things like Onan) I don't understand this cut.

 

[turbopilot]

It all adds up with the Newmar sale to W, we know MH sales peaked. I didn't expect Cummins would be hit that hard as a side effect as I would think MH sales are a minor part of their business. With Cummins such a large provider of Diesel engines (and other things like Onan) I don't understand this cut.

Cummins is a worldwide business. Other economies around the world are slowing down. This represents a 3% reduction in worldwide headcount for Cummins. Very small. World economic conditions and automation most likely contribute to the decline.

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

It is a tough world out there in the industrial sector. New tariffs, uncertainty with trade agreements, a slowing economy and all the rest make it tougher. Being less than a year from a major election doesn't help either. This is just part of another cycle that we've seen throughout modern history.

TJ

 

[Neal]

It is a tough world out there in the industrial sector. New tariffs, uncertainty with trade agreements, a slowing economy and all the rest make it tougher. Being less than a year from a major election doesn't help either. This is just part of another cycle that we've seen throughout modern history.

Yep, all makes me just want to move to Gilligan's Island! ...and farm Hatch Green Chile's

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Sorry, Neal, but you can only grow the "Hatch Green Chile" in the Hatch Valley of New Mexico. Unless "Gilligan's Island" has been moved there, you are out of luck!

My compliments to the members of this forum for discussing the Cummins jobs issue and the factors surrounding it without resorting to partisan comments. That's a testament to the quality of people on this new form, and to the light-hand approach taken by the forum owner in allowing discussions of this sort.

On the "other" forum, several of us would have been slapped down by now. Good treatment comes with good behavior! I'm proud to be among the folks here.

TJ

 

[Joe Hogan]

Class 8 trucks softened somewhat in August but the segment is still having a good year according to this clip https://www.ttnews.com/articles/class-8-sales-slide-lower-august
Frieghtliner is owned by Daimler AG https://www.ttnews.com/articles/freightliner-catapults-september-class-8-sales-record-high
Looks like Freightliner has Detroit Diesel as well as Cummings engines. Note that Freightliner is Cummings largest customer.
If you are interested in Detroit Diesel facts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Diesel

Looks like Cummings may just be losing share to other engine builders, especially to Detroit Diesel in the 10 liter and larger engines.

Note in this article that Cummings largest customer is Freightliner in 2018. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/cummins-top-overall-supplier-class-8-diesel-engines-2018
and tops in first half of 2019 https://www.ttnews.com/articles/cummins-top-overall-supplier-class-8-engines-first-half-2019

Note the comment about Detroit Diesel leading in the 10 liter and above segment. Cummings may be laying off due to a supply contract adjustment for 2020.

Truck market is slowing according to this article https://www.ttnews.com/articles/class-8-orders-71-year-ago-levels

Is my financial analyst side showing :[)

 

[Akdare]

Yes, indeedy, it is showing...good research.

I’m not concerned about a 3% reduction in force. Shows me they are being proactive instead of reactive.

We’re in a really prolonged bull market...gotta change sometime.

 

[FL-JOE]

Cat has gone through much of the same thing, and to a certain degree is still adjusting for the world markets by cutting more fat. They certainly are not doing business the same way they did even 10 years ago.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

Question, Do any of y'all see an impact to the motorhome manufacturing community? Or do you think a lesser demand for motorhomes will create a natural adjustment, i.e. supply/demand?

 

[Joe Hogan]

During my employment financing RV dealership inventory for Bombardier Capital (purchased by GE Capital), we used the empirical data derived from the RV sector sales to predict the strength of the overall economy. During this time, I also was responsible for Powersports Inventory, Marine and Mobile Home dealer financing. The lead indicator was RV. We also watched the banking loan sector and home equity loans to predict RV sales trends. Using this data, 2007, 2008, 2009 was no surprise. Most of us prospered in our retirement accounts during the great recession in 2007, 2008, 2009.

That said, this is worth a read https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/rv-shipments-october-2019

There is some lag between a RV sales downturn and the overall economy. Generally, 12-18 months.

BTW This is not financial advice. This is only a general observation. I am no longer a licensed Financial Advisor and can not provide financial advice in any form.

 

[turbopilot]

Best predictor of the future is past performance. This chart says it all. Hold on.

 

[Joe Hogan]

Ths Inverted yield curve is a great indicator. It confirms we are in for a slow down.

 

[Akdare]

??

 

[Chuggs]

When working with the technician troubleshooting the shorted fuel injector in my Cummins ISL. He did let slip he prefers working on the Detroit Diesel. The interface they use works better than the Cummins Insite software apparently...saving him a lot of time and frustration.

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

We’re in a really prolonged bull market...gotta change sometime.

This!

We WILL see a downward economic "adjustment" sometime in the foreseeable future. It is just a matter of exactly when. This is a "natural adjustment" in the economic world, and when these adjustments happen, one of the first hits is in "discretionary spending.

For those of us who are retired, the best defense is good financial planning and management that moderates the downturn. That's why we use a Certified Financial Planner with an excellent track record to help us reduce the risk and keep us diversified. That worked well for us in the 2007 fiasco, so we see no need to fix something that ain't broke.

Yes, we will see a market turndown again in the motorhome industry one of these days. The strong companies will survive by making smart financial and production choices; the weaker ones will go the way of the dinosaur. I'm betting that Newmar (aka Winnebago) will make the right decisions.

TJ

 

[Akdare]

This!

We WILL see a downward economic "adjustment" sometime in the foreseeable future. It is just a matter of exactly when. This is a "natural adjustment" in the economic world, and when these adjustments happen, one of the first hits is in "discretionary spending.

For those of us who are retired, the best defense is good financial planning and management that moderates the downturn. That's why we use a Certified Financial Planner with an excellent track record to help us reduce the risk and keep us diversified. That worked well for us in the 2007 fiasco, so we see no need to fix something that ain't broke.

Yes, we will see a market turndown again in the motorhome industry one of these days. The strong companies will survive by making smart financial and production choices; the weaker ones will go the way of the dinosaur. I'm betting that Newmar (aka Winnebago) will make the right decisions.

TJ

I couldn’t have said it better myself...

 

["EZ"]

Looking at all the posts here back at the end of 2019 (above) it looks like everyone agreed that we were in for a recession, or at least a slow down. I sell class 2 thru 5 Cummins powered Ram commercial trucks in the Southeast. We also mount the bodies to go on them, like dump bodies, flat beds, service bodies, crane bodies, etc. 2019 was the biggest year I've had in the 8 years I have been with my company. I sold over 500 Rams with a value of about $27,500,000.00. I sold an additional $3,000,000.00 worth of bodies to go on them. Now we are in Sept. of 2020 and have had to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic almost all year. I've sold over 500 trucks again this year and have been COMPLETELY OUT of trucks several times due to plant closures, etc due to the virus. My body sales are over $500,000.00 over 2019. And here's the kicker...........my company put a travel ban on last March, so I haven't made a single sales call in over 6 months and yet my sales are above last year by a huge margin!! This economy is rocking and rolling despite what you're hearing on TV every night. Companies do not buy new equipment like this if we're headed into a recession.

Just wanted to give my personal experience.

 

[JRS]

Looking at all the posts here back at the end of 2019 (above) it looks like everyone agreed that we were in for a recession, or at least a slow down. I sell class 2 thru 5 Cummins powered Ram commercial trucks in the Southeast. We also mount the bodies to go on them, like dump bodies, flat beds, service bodies, crane bodies, etc. 2019 was the biggest year I've had in the 8 years I have been with my company. I sold over 500 Rams with a value of about $27,500,000.00. I sold an additional $3,000,000.00 worth of bodies to go on them. Now we are in Sept. of 2020 and have had to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic almost all year. I've sold over 500 trucks again this year and have been COMPLETELY OUT of trucks several times due to plant closures, etc due to the virus. My body sales are over $500,000.00 over 2019. And here's the kicker...........my company put a travel ban on last March, so I haven't made a single sales call in over 6 months and yet my sales are above last year by a huge margin!! This economy is rocking and rolling despite what you're hearing on TV every night. Companies do not buy new equipment like this if we're headed into a recession.

Just wanted to give my personal experience.

Great to hear! Market at this point reflects the same an thanks for the post.

 

[Jim]

2019 was the biggest year I've had in the 8 years I have been with my company. I sold over 500 Rams with a value of about $27,500,000.00. Now we are in Sept. of 2020 and have had to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic almost all year. I've sold over 500 trucks again this year and have been COMPLETELY OUT of trucks several times due to plant closures, etc due to the virus. My body sales are over $500,000.00 over 2019.

Wow!