2021 Dutch Stars are sold out

[sheridany]

i talked to nirvc today and the entire DSDP line for an order is sold out for 2021. So if you are thinking about buying, get in line for a 2022 which will start production usually around July thereabouts.

 

[Neal]

Does this means all DSDP's dealers reserved are unavailable or do dealers have slots that people can find?

 

[sheridany]

It only means nirvc cannot fulfill any custom order slots. Being the size of the dealer they are, I would imagine the same may be true at all dealers. I have not spoken to others.

 

[Neal]

I wouldn't give out hope if you're after a '21 DSDP, just reach out to other dealers and see what they say. I think when I ordered my VTDP in Feb of 2017 it was getting to that same situation that the chassis's were not available, the quota's were spoken for.

 

[sheridany]

Tom Lindstrom says he’s taking DutchStar orders so the order fulfillment is not dealer wide.

 

[sheridany]

Steinbring is not taking orders. They will start in April after the dealer show.

 

[Neal]

Some dealers cancelled their orders (slots) when the pandemic hit. NIRVC was brave and kept all their orders and it paid off. Customers will have to shop dealers to find what they want or wait, but there are still limited seats so don't delay, no matter what time of the year.

 

[Joe Hogan]

I wouldn't give out hope if you're after a '21 DSDP, just reach out to other dealers and see what they say. I think when I ordered my VTDP in Feb of 2017 it was getting to that same situation that the chassis's were not available, the quota's were spoken for.

Much like Neal, when we ordered the Canyon Star in Dec 2017, all of the 2018 Canyon Stars were "sold out". We were able to modify an existing dealer order to our liking and wait until June of 2018 for the unit to be available.
Remember that the Factory's customers are dealers. Each dealer is given the opportunity to order up to a set number of units. When the factory is "sold out" it means that the planned production for that model year has been ordered by dealers.
Many of the units ordered by dealers are on Spec, for inventory, not yet spoken for by a dealer's customer.

 

[sheridany]

what is interesting is that NIRVC is one of the biggest dealers in the US besides North Trail and a few others and when things started shutting down dealers started cancelling 2021 orders expecting the worse. NIRVC bought those slots and still sold out.

 

[Brett Davis]

I’ve enjoyed reading this thread, and I thought I would share some of my observations, hoping it might be helpful to someone who is trying to navigate purchasing a coach in this market.

I sense many believe the increased demand for Class A motorhomes is the direct result of the Pandemic. I happen to believe the impact the Pandemic has had on demand for Class A motorhomes to be both small, and secondary. Please allow me to explain.

December 2020 numbers aren’t out yet, however through 11/30/20, wholesale shipments from the factories to dealers of Class A motorhomes (both gas and diesel) are down 29.2% year to date versus last year. In fact, there haven’t been this few Class A motorhomes built in years. This reduction in the supply of new Class A motorhomes is the primary reason for the increased demand. The secondary reason is the Pandemic, which initially caused the factories to shut down for 8 weeks, followed by rolling shut downs due to quarantining, and supply chain disruptions.

Now, what about the retail sales of Class A motorhomes by dealers? Well, they’re also down 11.6% through 11/30/20 year over year. The difference between wholesale shipments, and retail sales of 17.6% represents all the units sold from dealer’s inventories. The remaining 11.6% was absorbed by the used market, and a whole lot more.

Bottom line, an almost 30% reduction in the supply of new Class A motorhomes has caused a waterfall effect, and is the direct reason for the overwhelming demand! A demand so large it has absorbed all the new production of Class A units, plus almost all of the dealer’s inventories, plus a huge chunk of the used market. Now, that’s really saying something for an industry who has chronically overbuilt, and historically turned their inventory 1.45 times a year!

So, what does all this portend for the future? The real answer is it’s anyone’s guess, but I’m willing to speculate with those of you who want to speculate.

First, I suspect funds for the financing of motorhomes will remain plentiful throughout 2021 as the new administration has already promised trillions more in stimulus, and the Fed has already signaled they’re not tightening (raising rates) until at least 2023.

Second, while I expect progress to be made in 2021, I don’t expect the supply/demand ratio for Class A motorhomes to come back into balance. Why? New 2021 Class A production will need to increase by 41.25% over 2020 just to get back to Pre-Pandemic levels, PLUS 29.4% more to replenish dealer’s inventories. We’re talking about a total of a 70.7% increase in the production of new Class A motorhomes over what was produced in 2020! Yet, we still have serious supply chain disruptions, a reduced workforce due to continued quarantining, and there was zero progress made in the month of January 2021. So, 1/12 of the year is already gone.

Third, as I’ve advised our customers since April of 2020, if you already own a coach, and are looking to upgrade, there’s never been a better time to do so than right now! Why? The sales price for used coaches relative to their NADA Book Values has exploded! Those margins have gone up multiples of the percentage manufacturer’s raised their prices by on new units. In other words, I’ve never seen the delta between new and used smaller. Conversely, I can’t think of a worse time to buy a used coach, no matter how clean it is! Used coach buyers are overpaying by between 18 months to two years worth of depreciation. Considering the median time someone owns a coach is 4.3 years, that’s pretty staggering to think about.

Fourth, we’ve all seen this film before after the Great Recession of 2008/2009. With a reduction of 29.2% in the model year 2021, looking into the future 4.3 years there will be 29.2% fewer 2021 used coaches. This means model year 2021 coaches should sell for a greater premium to book value than those of the other overbuilt model years, i.e. 2016. This means the overall cost of ownership of a 2021 model year coach should be less than those of other model years. And, I suspect this is going to hold true for model year 2022 coaches for the reasons I’ve mentioned above.

Lastly, while I could list another half dozen impacts I expect to see play out, I suspect you’re as tired of reading this post as I am of writing it. But, I’ll end with this. There will most certainly be more demand in 2021 than there will be new units manufactured. Two things to ponder here. As a dealer, we’ve already been put on notice Dealers will be put on allocation for the model year 2022. Meaning, manufacturers already know they’re not going to be able to build enough units, and all dealers will have their orders cut back. Couple that bit of information with here at NIRVC, we already have by a very large margin, record numbers of retail sold orders for model year 2022 units across all our the lines we carry. And, we won’t see our first Newmar until July, given they always switch their lines over the 4th of July holiday. Yes, I do believe this year is already baked in... we will see all model year 2022 slots, across all manufacturers, sold out long before the end of the model year. Again!

In closing, I don’t want to leave anyone with the wrong impression. While my information has been all about the supply and demand of new coach sales, NIRVC is, and will always be, a service company first, and foremost. Service is the hub of our wheel! Our mission has never been to be the biggest, it has always been to be the best as measured through the eyes of coach owners. This is an absolutely wonderful lifestyle we all share, and like you, we want to make it even better.

Safe travels, and all the best!

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Great post by someone who is in a position to know the ups and downs of the RV industry. Thanks for posting, Brett; and don't be a stranger here at RVF. We appreciate your insights.

TJ

 

[Neemer]

It’s always good to read your perspective, Brett. Thanks for taking the time to share that.

 

[AbdRahim]

Very good to see you participating here, Brett. That was one thing I always admired about B. Clemens at FR. He was always right there listening to and engaging his customers and potential customers.

 

[Wikel]

Wait until the aluminum tariff starts to be passed down (recently reinstated by Biden). Also the electronics tariff was not only not rolled back but allowed to roll from 15% to 25% recently. Expect a large uplift for orders very soon I'd bet.