YouTube Brett’s latest on the RV industry

[Neemer]

His sense of humor is on full display in the first minutes of this epic 4+ hr monologue.

 

[allenlook]

Video unavailable?

 

[Neemer]

Hmmmm. Must have taken it down for some reason.

 

[allenlook]

Rats, and I had set aside 4 whole hours,...

 

[Neal]

Gee, I wonder who?

Candidly, Brett was asked by a manufacturer to take his video down because he needed to make a small edit on a disclosure. Brett and our team worked late last night and this morning to put together a new version, then the team decided to review the entire 4+ hour video again. And, now it’s back! Grab the snacks and Diet Coke.

 

[Phillbo]

I don't have time for 4 hours of one man's opinion.

 

[Underboss]

I don't have time for 4 hours of one man's opinion.

I have spent time watching his videos. His intelligence and knowledge of the rv industry is above reproach. NIRVC charts defects across brand lines. He uses data and shares it in a way that every dealer or owner should.
Opinions are like you know what, everyone has one. But data is undisputable. I always spend the time to watch his videos as I always learn something.

 

[Neal]

Anyone have cliff notes, highlights, any takeaways from the video they care to share?

 

[redbaron]

I watched it all.

Casey complained about the first video because it showed just how much less than invoice the motorhome are actually making.

Brett changed it in v2 with an audio dub and visual change to remove current year numbers.

Invoice for 1+ years vs value was 20% and climbed drastically


He also showed that lot queens (unsold new) are treated like used by every financing entity. The dealer loses their shirt unless a buyer pays likes its new.

The entire financing is based on production. Compare to the housing collapse of 2008. And the manufactured homes of the 90s


He didn’t say this, but the entire manufacturing and lending industry is a Ponzi scheme that only works if buyers are willing to flip the bill.

Personally I saw this getting ready to take place in 2021 and it’s why I made the jump so early to my 2022.

The greed and overbuilding that the industry is doing is what is ultimately going to crash the market.

There is 45k u sold units or 16months of supply today and it keeps growing

Manufacturers have AA time bomb with the contract they have with all flooring lenders called the guaranteed buyback

If a dealer becomes insolvent or doesn’t pay, the manufacturers have to refund.

Winnebago has 30x exposure vs cash. Thor has 10x

One big Newmar dealer going under will kill Winnebago (my words)

 

[allenlook]

The manufacturers have been building toward this (pun intended) since COVID with all the complete crap they've been putting out.

P.S. I don't even have 4 hours of time for my *own* opinion, but I'll try to watch some of this.