YouTube Brett Talk: Trade Deficits, Tariffs, and the Stock and Motorhome Markets

[Neal]

 

[AbdRahim]

My $.02. I largely agree with Brett on the stock market. We usually get a significant correction, at least once a year. The market has essentially been in a bull run since 2010. This cannot last forever. I also think the market overheated, led largely by all of the expectations around AI. So, even without the threat of tariffs, we were due for a correction., and it may not yet be over. Now I do think the tariff threat sparked part of the selloff, but humans tend to over react to scary scenarios. As a result, there has beena nice, but likely short lived recovery.

I wish I knew how to do the complex trades that Brett does. For now, and for us who are not professionals as he, I have read many times, that when bad news sparks a panic selloff in the market, the best thing to do is nothing.

 

[Neal]

I just want to know @Brett Davis's secret to looking so young. I'm still dealing with the picture @Jim just posted of me hanging out in the tree at @Deer Springs RV Park just getting some fresh air and enjoying lunch.

And this was one of the few videos I watched start to finish. Outstanding watch if you can find the time to stay put long enough.

 

[flyboy013]

The video was very informative. Playing it at 1.5 speed helped me get through the whole thing.

 

[redbaron]

I listened to the video while walking thru the airport Monday. Went back to study some of the slides.

Beyond the market analysis, the epa2027 was another confirmation of what we have seen where the market is going to be vastly different in a few years for diesel pushers.

 

[Neal]

the market is going to be vastly different in a few years for diesel pushers

Can you elaborate please?

 

[redbaron]

Can you elaborate please?

EPA 2027 forced R&D to spend $$$ on an engine to was projected to sell at a pace that was unrealistic. During the process it became evident that the market was changing, so R&D started adapting.

The adaptation in part involved gutting performance.

The new engine will be less efficient and 50-80HP less by some estimations.

The final cost to the consumer is $40k +/- during a time when the demand is waning and prices are outrageous compared to 2021/22 model years (9% average annual increase compared to 3% in prior years).

We have already seen Thors response (Entegra done) leaving only Newmar with the hung wall.

Before travel supreme, Newmar was the only one with hung wall, so that is not a big deal, but the waning demand and Wall Street demand for year over year earnings to increase doesn’t give a bright future.