YouTube Brett Talk: Trade Deficits, Tariffs, and the Stock and Motorhome Markets

[Neal]

 

[AbdRahim]

My $.02. I largely agree with Brett on the stock market. We usually get a significant correction, at least once a year. The market has essentially been in a bull run since 2010. This cannot last forever. I also think the market overheated, led largely by all of the expectations around AI. So, even without the threat of tariffs, we were due for a correction., and it may not yet be over. Now I do think the tariff threat sparked part of the selloff, but humans tend to over react to scary scenarios. As a result, there has beena nice, but likely short lived recovery.

I wish I knew how to do the complex trades that Brett does. For now, and for us who are not professionals as he, I have read many times, that when bad news sparks a panic selloff in the market, the best thing to do is nothing.

 

[Neal]

I just want to know @Brett Davis's secret to looking so young. I'm still dealing with the picture @Jim just posted of me hanging out in the tree at @Deer Springs RV Park just getting some fresh air and enjoying lunch.

And this was one of the few videos I watched start to finish. Outstanding watch if you can find the time to stay put long enough.

 

[flyboy013]

The video was very informative. Playing it at 1.5 speed helped me get through the whole thing.

 

[redbaron]

I listened to the video while walking thru the airport Monday. Went back to study some of the slides.

Beyond the market analysis, the epa2027 was another confirmation of what we have seen where the market is going to be vastly different in a few years for diesel pushers.

 

[Neal]

the market is going to be vastly different in a few years for diesel pushers

Can you elaborate please?

 

[redbaron]

Can you elaborate please?

EPA 2027 forced R&D to spend $$$ on an engine to was projected to sell at a pace that was unrealistic. During the process it became evident that the market was changing, so R&D started adapting.

The adaptation in part involved gutting performance.

The new engine will be less efficient and 50-80HP less by some estimations.

The final cost to the consumer is $40k +/- during a time when the demand is waning and prices are outrageous compared to 2021/22 model years (9% average annual increase compared to 3% in prior years).

We have already seen Thors response (Entegra done) leaving only Newmar with the hung wall.

Before travel supreme, Newmar was the only one with hung wall, so that is not a big deal, but the waning demand and Wall Street demand for year over year earnings to increase doesn’t give a bright future.

 

[RollingManCave]

I enjoyed the video. I have to accept a few of his math facts because I am not familiar with them. One thing I found interesting was he never mentioned consumer debt. Maybe this is because his primary customer has none. Interesting.

 

[RollingManCave]

IMHO: Another thing I noticed from the video was the lack of data surrounding the Pandemic causation. I group the Pandemic with the 911, Wall-Street banker bailout from bogus loans and the latest false flags from Ukraine and Gaza. I stopped voting after Sen. Welstone and Bush Jr.. I stopped investing in the stock market after doing a deep dive into 911 and the corrupt bailout of wall-street bankers. No gold or crypto currency for me either. I am much happier as a survivor than joining one of the two political parties that have turned into little more than group of white collar gang bangers. I know that the speaker said he was not going to get political and just use facts, but if you don't use all the facts than political you became. My viewpoint is not political. I believe we are all on the same H&H (Heaven NorthBound & Hell South Bound) Highway. There are no off ramps only U-Turns on this Highway. It is not for me to be your back seat driver, I have enough to just pay attention to my own driving and the constantly changing road signs. I'll end with this: People who can afford a $500k motorhome are probably taking interest and depreciation tax write offs for it. The higher price is probably not why they are not buying right now. They are simply in a business mode where the are waiting for the next accelerated depreciation tax scam to come out from the political Gang Bangers. I digress.

 

[Neal]

Wellllllll that's certainly and interesting point of view, but that's fine too. I think with videos such as Brett offers anyone that wants to watch is to take away anything you want from it or nothing at all. My keen interest is on how the current motorhome pricing is going to play out, interesting point you made about it. Brett seems to think we are approaching a time to buy. I strongly disagree. I have zero interest in where some manufactures have price points now, for new, and while I typically always buy new, there are plenty of practically new, if not dang near new, that's available at a steep discount because pre-owned sellers are afraid of raising prices due to a saturated market. So that's really what I wanted to get out of Brett's video, how is current pricing working out, what is expected in the road ahead. Time will tell, if only I didn't know what they cost 7 years ago!

 

[RollingManCave]

Wellllllll that's certainly and interesting point of view, but that's fine too. I think with videos such as Brett offers anyone that wants to watch is to take away anything you want from it or nothing at all. My keen interest is on how the current motorhome pricing is going to play out, interesting point you made about it. Brett seems to think we are approaching a time to buy. I strongly disagree. I have zero interest in where some manufactures have price points now, for new, and while I typically always buy new, there are plenty of practically new, if not dang near new, that's available at a steep discount because pre-owned sellers are afraid of raising prices due to a saturated market. So that's really what I wanted to get out of Brett's video, how is current pricing working out, what is expected in the road ahead. Time will tell, if only I didn't know what they cost 7 years ago!

IMHO: I purchased mine new in 2021 and the prices went sky high months latter. I had people wanting to buy mine for more than I paid for it. Why would I sell it. I retired and always wanted to spend time living the rv life. I will be at the 5 year mark come spring of 2026. I have done a little international travel now want do more of that so am thinking about selling towards the end of summer. The prices have dropped a lot and will look at a fair selling price when the time comes. I will place a 4-sale sign in the window and see what happens. I will be selling not because the market is good or bad but because the time is right for me. If the numbers don't work out, I'll park it and travel internationally on a smaller budget and do some more travel in the motorhome when I return. My point is that life is short and since everything has become so corrupted, why not just buy what you want when you want. Obviously if you want something new and you can't afford new than buy used and enjoy. If the prices are a few thousand higher than you prefer, but you can afford new, why not just buy what you want and enjoy life now the best you can while you can. Either way what some Wall Street PUT Trader says about the pricing of $500k rigs might be interesting, it has little effect on what I am going to do or what I care about. He lives in a whole different world than I do. I just hope he is traveling on the right highway when he is giving the reasons for his current participation in the stock market. As far as market saturation, manufactures and dealers are always trying to hold back supply for bigger profit margins. All you have to do is drive to a few big dealers and see how full their lots are of new rigs and how many people are out shopping. If they have a lot of them and few customers, they need to move them no matter what the media says. Anyway, that is what this nobody thinks.