CA strikes again with CARB ACT

[turbopilot]

One more issue of merit. A diesel truck ban is all about the owner operators of big rig over the road trucks in interstate commerce. Class A RV's are just a blip against the big picture. For owner operators they typically expect 1,000,000 miles and/or 10 to 12 years of service life out of their rigs. That means in order to meet the CARB deadlines owner operators beginning right now need to make a decision between ICE or EV trucks. So while 2036 looks a long way away, it is now for those operators who have to replace a rig now.

 

[MemoriesByTheMile]

Tesla has been a disrupter and I give them kudos for doing that. Elon is optimistic about how soon he can make something happen.

Tesla has the name recognition for the electric semi, but other vendors are also delivering electric semis, in higher volume than Tesla. Freightliner and Volvo have trucks on the road and i think Kenworth may also have an electric model.

I am a big fan of electric vehicles for certain use cases, but don’t believe that they are the best for all situations. We have an electric car and a gas car and the diesel coach.

Until batteries get cheaper and faster to charge, the electric RV will not be cost effective or fit our use case and how we drive (hundreds of miles a day while en route).

Once batteries are cheaper and deployed everywhere this will help alleviate some of the concerns around charging infrastructure but still need much more work. Some of the biggest energy consumers in our culture, data centers, are working to find new ways to source energy.

Like the recent history of the Kansas City Chiefs football team - winning at electric trucks/RVs will not sit on one person’s shoulders but will be a team effort where everyone is an important part.

I believe we will eventually win at this transition, but we will probably “win ugly”, won’t be simple, won’t be easy, won’t look like we thought it would look when we started, the scope of what will change will be different but we will end up with another “W”.

 

[turbopilot]

I believe we will eventually win at this transition, but we will probably “win ugly”, won’t be simple, won’t be easy, won’t look like we thought it would look when we started, the scope of what will change will be different but we will end up with another “W”.

But the bigger question is why we need the transition now for RV's before EV RV's are competitive. There is no compelling reason to kill ICE RV's now and let other ICE vehicles continue. It is a California squeeze play hitting a small market segment without much political clout to make a point. Just like progressively banning portable and RV generators by 2028. It is estimated RV's are responsible for .084% of the total US transportation global emissions. That is the definition of an ugly win.

 

[MemoriesByTheMile]

But the bigger question is why we need the transition now for RV's before EV RV's are competitive. There is no compelling reason to kill ICE RV's now and let other ICE vehicles continue. It is a California squeeze play hitting a small market segment without much political clout to make a point. Just like progressively banning portable and RV generators by 2028. It is estimated RV's are responsible for .084% of the total US transportation global emissions. That is the definition of an ugly win.

Totally agree that this will be ugly. Fully expect them to realize they need to make an exception or adjustment as this segment of the market doesn’t have any real volume alternative choices…yet. But they won’t easily give in, will probably take lawsuits and lots of time before they compromise.

In the meantime, lots of dealerships and sales people will start losing money/jobs. Only bright side in the short term is that new units on the lot may be seen at a premium and market for recent model year used may see an uptick in value.

 

[turbopilot]

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Toyota Says CARB EV Mandates for 2026 Are ‘Impossible’ to Meet: Report​

 

[Voyageurs]

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Toyota Says CARB EV Mandates for 2026 Are ‘Impossible’ to Meet: Report​

That’s not true. Tesla, Rivian, Hyundai and others are having no problem meeting and exceeding the requirements. Toyota is just a decade behind in technology development. Same as Stellantis.

 

[redbaron]

Comparing Tesla and rivian to the same as Toyota is laughable. Toyota is the #1 manufacturer in the world.

Hyundai was 4, but is projected to slip back to 6.

Honda, GM, VW, Mercedes all are joining Toyota in pushing back. BMW has lost so much loyalty from owners no one seems to care what they do, but it is notable that the X7 remains ICE and is a hot seller for them.

 

[Voyageurs]

Comparing Tesla and rivian to the same as Toyota is laughable. Toyota is the #1 manufacturer in the world.

Hyundai was 4, but is projected to slip back to 6.

Honda, GM, VW, Mercedes all are joining Toyota in pushing back. BMW has lost so much loyalty from owners no one seems to care what they do, but it is notable that the X7 remains ICE and is a hot seller for them.

I don’t know. The number one selling vehicle in the world is electric. The tesla model Y. I’m sure if Toyota gets serious about it they can design vehicles that they can sell in the US. Tesla does. Rivian does. Hyundai does. Saying it’s impossible is laughable. Lots of companies are doing it. It’s just Toyota that can’t.

And if Toyota can’t do it they should just cede the market to companies that can.

 

[turbopilot]

That’s not true. Tesla, Rivian, Hyundai and others are having no problem meeting and exceeding the requirements. Toyota is just a decade behind in technology development. Same as Stellantis.

As I read the story Toyota is focusing on the 2026 CARB market share mandate of 35% EV's. This year California is around 25% while the entire nation is 9% market share. All this with a backdrop of year over year EV market growth slowing. Obviously, this varies by manufacturer but Toyota is saying the industry trends are not favorable to make the mandate. Toyota is a big company. I think they probably understand the facts as well as any company. Without changes it does appear Toyota with join FreightLine and Spartan not selling new vehicles into California.

 

[Voyageurs]

As I read the story Toyota is focusing on the 2026 CARB market share mandate of 35% EV's. This year California is around 25% while the entire nation is 9% market share. All this with a backdrop of year over year EV market growth slowing. Obviously, this varies by manufacturer but Toyota is saying the industry trends are not favorable to make the mandate. Toyota is a big company. I think they probably understand the facts as well as any company. Without changes it does appear Toyota with join FreightLine and Spartan not selling new vehicles into California.

Growth is slowing but not sales. EV sales continue to grow the world over, including the US and Canada.

ICE sales are losing market sales though. Toyota just started R and D too late. Now toyota is so far behind they think they are first.