Question What is your prediction about the rest of 2020?

[sheridany]

I am curious what other Newmarians think the rest of this year is going to look like in terms of the remaining inventory of 2019-20 coaches and the new forthcoming 2021 coaches? Business as usual or throttle back the production depending on the economy? They are going to start production May 9th according to a news article yesterday.

 

[Neal]

I think there will be great deals to be had for those that are willing to spend money. I personally am in a freeze and will be "responsible" the remainder of this year as things progress. I think the markets are itching to rebound once the virus gets an all clear and governors lift their executive orders. I think the RV market along with every other market will remain depressed until post election out of fear. This will take time to recover from in my personal opinion.

 

[RKins]

I think there will be great deals to be had for those that are willing to spend money. I personally am in a freeze and will be "responsible" the remainder of this year as things progress. I think the markets are itching to rebound once the virus gets an all clear and governors lift their executive orders. I think the RV market along with every other market will remain depressed until post election out of fear. This will take time to recover from in my personal opinion.

There goes my Amazon stock ;-P

 

[AbdRahim]

There goes my Amazon stock ;-P

Actually, I think Amazon is one of the best things to own right now. They cannot keep up with demand. Also, it may be a while after this pandemic is over (perhaps another wave in the fall) before people are comfortable out in public, shopping. In fact, more people may get used to the convenience of online shopping, and continue, even after this is all over.

As far as Newmar is concerned, it would only seem wise to start production on a subdued note and guage it based on new factory orders.

There should be a bump in the market after the pandemic, just based on wholesale orders to restock the depleted supplies at the retail level.

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Actually, I think Amazon is one of the best things to own right now.

I think the reference was primarily to the loss of business from @Neal while he is in buying "freeze" mode.

TJ

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

I am curious what other Newmarians think the rest of this year is going to look like in terms of the remaining inventory of 2019-20 coaches and the new forthcoming 2021 coaches? Business as usual or throttle back the production depending on the economy? They are going to start production May 9th according to a news article yesterday.

My guess is that there will be a substantial decline in dealer-ordered coaches to put on the lot but customer-ordered coaches may not be that much impacted, especially in the high-end lines. The "towable" sector of the RV industry will probably take a serious hit with the rise in the unemployment levels cutting expendable income.

I think it is going to take months to get employment levels up again and that would put the industry well past the prime RV sales timeframe; spring and summer. And, the upcoming national election will likely put people in a wait-and-see mode until the results are known. Again, this would be well past the peak season for RV sales.

IMHO, our economy will survive this, but it is going to be a long-term recovery with a whole lot of ups and downs. If you are in the stock market, get a good grip on that bull rope, pull your hat down really snug, keep one hand free and spur! It's gonna be a wild ride, but there are some good scores to be had if you can stay on top!

TJ

 

[Neal]

Sorry, had an Amazon delivery to pickup from the front door. Catching up on the thread now.

 

[texskeet]

The rv industry is going to see death fire and destruction . Bad Bad Bad. some want make it.

 

[FL-JOE]

The economy is different then it was during the last recession. But no doubt the RV industry and boating industry will take a huge hit.

 

[deaton]

Sorry, had an Amazon delivery to pickup from the front door. Catching up on the thread now.

I thought you were in a buying shut-down.


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[deaton]

As we come out of this mess, there might be a reluctance by folks to travel in planes and stay in hotels. That said, does anyone think that might lead to more demand for RV’s to avoid public transit?


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[sheridany]

That said, does anyone think that might lead to more demand for RV’s to avoid public transit?

i think so.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

Looks to me like there is significant inventory on dealer lots.....'19 & '20
I'm not sure if there will be a "sales surge" on RV's, maybe so, maybe not.
But my bet is that 2021 production will be significantly reduced!
Dealers cannot sustain the large inventory's, due to tremendous "floor plan" or inventory expense!
I don't mean to sound like a "Negative Nellie", but with the significantly reduced employment, lack of income, and continued living expenses; disposable income for a lot of folks will be severely lacking!
Yes or No?
What's your opinion!

 

[NWIP]

People have been more at home, spending more time with families and trying to relieve stress by doing things outdoors. In some areas this has had negative impact on social distancing closing many National parks like the Grand Canyon.

I think this pandemic may bring changes in the way people vacation bringing more people to the outdoors. This will benefit the RV industry but will not cure the effects that they will be facing.

 

[sheridany]

I think there will be opportunities to buy if you have the means to purchase on existing dealer inventories because flooring gets expensive on inventory that sits and the typical credit line agreement between lenders and dealers starts to have negative economic implications for the dealer as time goes by. If you had cash and you could find the coach that met every criteria you wanted except for specials, I would say making a great deal would be strongly in your favor. I don’t think you will see any great deals on a new custom order however the dealer may pass through a few percentage points off MSRP to make something in these trying times. I think the dealers that do great service like NIRVC guaranty etc will survive as service will carry them through this. Someone made a point earlier that traveling by RV may become a preferred method of travel and I think that is accurate.