Brett Davis from NIRVC on Inflation, RVs & Truths About Motorhome Industry Decline

[Neal]

 

[DennisT]

Very interesting data.

 

[Kevin D Pem]

I guess my thought process is tainted with everything he didn't mention!

 

[Rd1]

I wonder how many class A manufacturers were in 84 compared to now? Also, general quality level of class A's back then compared to now. Just for curiosity. exclude bells and whistles, I wonder, if you could drive one of the lot and how far before you had break downs, back then v now. This aspect of QC comes into play when compared to European class As. To the extent that I am aware, most EU class As can be driven of the lot, just like you might expect driving a Honda of the lot here in US (I exclude UK out of this comparison). If you had typical class As here made available in EU, I'd expect a considerable decline in class A in EU as well.

The median income argument is a bit cloudy, though it has increased. However, the couple decades of irresponsible financial policies of zero interests and lots of money printing, has had an effect of considerable wealth transfer. No, I don't mean the trickle down economy nonsense. its the other way, mass wealth upward. In that sense, the population growth numbers used, 'could' be somewhat misleading.

Although,there has been a great deal of money sloshing around, more so in recent years, the bottom population has lost ground.

According to FED data, 50% of the population has a wealth of some 56k! That, I 'would' imagine, takes that half of the population out of the domain of the class A. So in effect, the population growth presented in the video, though accurate, is very 'likely' a population decrease, when it comes to “the affordable population” who might consider purchasing a class A motorhome.

* I should emphesis, the 'affordable population' the bottom 50% compared to 80s has lost ground

 

[Joe Hogan]

Interesting analysis! It might be interesting to see the difference in Median vs Average income. Also the skew of income. Maybe a percentile analysis would give you the skew.

For instance 500 Billionaires and the rest of us earning min wages might give very misleading Averages.

 

[Kevin D Pem]

I wonder how many class A manufacturers were in 84 compared to now? Also, general quality level of class A's back then compared to now. Just for curiosity. exclude bells and whistles, I wonder, if you could drive one of the lot and how far before you had break downs, back then v now. This aspect of QC comes into play when compared to European class As. To the extent that I am aware, most EU class As can be driven of the lot, just like you might expect driving a Honda of the lot here in US (I exclude UK out of this comparison). If you had typical class As here made available in EU, I'd expect a considerable decline in class A in EU as well.

The median income argument is a bit cloudy, though it has increased. However, the couple decades of irresponsible financial policies of zero interests and lots of money printing, has had an effect of considerable wealth transfer. No, I don't mean the trickle down economy nonsense. its the other way, mass wealth upward. In that sense, the population growth numbers used, 'could' be somewhat misleading.

Although,there has been a great deal of money sloshing around, more so in recent years, the bottom population has lost ground.

According to FED data, 50% of the population has a wealth of some 56k! That, I 'would' imagine, takes that half of the population out of the domain of the class A. So in effect, the population growth presented in the video, though accurate, is very 'likely' a population decrease, when it comes to “the affordable population” who might consider purchasing a class A motorhome.

* I should emphesis, the 'affordable population' the bottom 50% compared to 80s has lost ground

Funny you should talk about EU. my thoughts are people drive MH because the cost of making a truck a daily driver in all aspects on narrow roads ridicules.

 

[Rd1]

Please note, 30' is the longest class A.. There are bigger units, though, I think used mostly for high end sporting events mainly(F1). even their 30 ft is very roomy and functional and these are very popular.. Just watch Tour d' France and you see them parked along narrow hilly roads all over. Some of the relevants keys here are quality and reliable service. They are built on chassis and with engines that are widely used, very efficient on fuel.

The RV manufacturing here has great potential, not just domestically, but even for export, but not with the QC problems. Unfortunatley the price padding is out of this world, so the decision makers have very little interet to improve and the consumers 'generally' are not 'acting' as they are supposed to !!! ofcourse with little or no competition. in a consolidating market, it does not help to improve things. ...

 

[turbopilot]

I am not sure what to make of the information Brett shared. Maybe it will reveal in the next two videos. But I really like the fact he is sharing this kind of information and analysis with his customers.

I suspect if more dealers followed the NIRVC playbook more people would consider Class A motorhome ownership. My guess is Brett will lay this out in future videos. Buying and maintaining a Class A from a dealer who might charge a little more for the coach but stand behind the purchase with outstanding support is a fair deal. Go Brett!

 

[Bigblockyeti]

Buying and maintaining a Class A from a dealer who might charge a little more for the coach but stand behind the purchase with outstanding support is a fair deal. Go Brett!

I may be an outlier here but I still want the least expensive price for the same thing with less regard from who it's coming from. If it's something likely to need alot of maintenance or warranty work I can't perform (there's little I've found I can't do), then it's probably something I don't really want that bad anyway. Much of this boils down to quality and what you get (or don't) for your $1.2M.

 

[Rd1]

The data from the NIRVC video indicates a continued loss of market for the motorhome units v towables, etc. I am sure there are reasonable explanation for that loss, which we look forward to hear in the coming videos.

One of those reasons may very well be related to the quality control or lack there of!!!! That is not to say the towables have better QC. However, for the price of a typical motorhome compared to a towable, you just have to wonder, paying a heck of a whole lot more and yet have the same quality issues, if not even worse!

This brand new 2024 MADP advertised with some piece of the bedroom ceiling hanging down! I know, most people may say, I'll just take a few screws or glue and secure it back on, No big deal!!!

That is not the point.

The point is, here is a Hi_Line dealer advertising a brand new Hi-Line unit from a manufacturer 'known' to be considered as above the rest (less the bus conversions units) and for a unit listed at some $850,000. A price which in all likelihood has some 50% (or more) padding. Yet, they don't even bother to fix the little mishap and proudly showcase the photo on an online advertisement! As is!!!

How is it that a hi-line unit leaves the factory in this shape? Or even if it fell while being delivered to the dealer? If so, what else has fallen underneath, behind walls,etc, which we can't see.

I just can't help but ask, for this level pricing, is there no pride in the workmanship? No integrity? Both for the factory(ies) and their dealer(s)? Just the good ol' fashionable stick it to them as fast as you can?

Have we reached a point where these manufacturer (all of them) and their dealers feel that they are ENTITLED to slap together whatever piece they can and shove it down their customers and for what pricing?

I respectfully ask the elites of this industry, what part of this process is that difficult, that such QC issues are routinely and habitually and repeatedly ignored, while the prices continue to go thru the stratosphere? For manufacturers who routinely make tens of millions, if not more, year after year, I ask all you CEOs, executives and owners, WHY?


** At this point, I am not even raising any issues relating to safety defects or other defects that from time to time are ignored (read swept under the carpet). However, in due time.

 

[Neal]

There was a post on Facebook in the Newmar owners group asking why all of the recent model years are going up for sale. As with many RV groups the speculation and answers are half the fun, it's sad sometimes, but it was mentioned and I agree that the quality issues are driving some to sell. They don't have the time or energy to be making multiple trips to Newmar or maybe their dealers aren't offering solutions, timely nonetheless. Prices have gone through the roof yet the quality seems to have tanked. Let's hope that era is over and they can improve.

 

[turbopilot]

There was a post on Facebook in the Newmar owners group asking why all of the recent model years are going up for sale. As with many RV groups the speculation and answers are half the fun, it's sad sometimes, but it was mentioned and I agree that the quality issues are driving some to sell. They don't have the time or energy to be making multiple trips to Newmar or maybe their dealers aren't offering solutions, timely nonetheless. Prices have gone through the roof yet the quality seems to have tanked. Let's hope that era is over and they can improve.

Clearly you are advantaged owning a Class A if you know how to fix it, carry spares and regularly participate in forums like this where you can crowd source a problem and have 10 people helping to find a solutions. Owning a Class A without participation in an owner's forum is a ticket to frustration.

 

[FLSteve]

There was a post on Facebook in the Newmar owners group asking why all of the recent model years are going up for sale. As with many RV groups the speculation and answers are half the fun, it's sad sometimes, but it was mentioned and I agree that the quality issues are driving some to sell. They don't have the time or energy to be making multiple trips to Newmar or maybe their dealers aren't offering solutions, timely nonetheless. Prices have gone through the roof yet the quality seems to have tanked. Let's hope that era is over and they can improve.

I remembered seeing this post on an earlier thread, so maybe there's still some hope at Newmar.

Newmar International Rally slim this year? (Sedalia)

I went to Sedalia I think in 2018 it was? 470 rigs I believe was the count. I saw a drone shot on Facebook from earlier today and it looks a little slim, my rough count is around 200 coaches.

rvforums.com

FLSteve

 

[Bigblockyeti]

Just the good ol' fashionable stick it to them as fast as you can?

Yes.

This is also the answer to your question regarding how hard QC application is.

 

[TheLooks]

I can tell you it is mirrored in the quality in housing everywhere I have been. Upstate NY, Charlotte NC, Chattanooga Tenn. IT is a population trend within the US. Custom builders used to pay by the hour and valued quality, now it is by the square ft. or linear ft.(trim) etc. I see it in the residential wiring of new homes also and plumbing. For some reason, it is a race to the bottom. But it generates greater profits for realtors, bankers, and their general contractors. Particularly the ones that can ignore the complaints of the consumer's.

 

[Joe Hogan]

My $2.... as we move away from Family owned businesses and more to a Public Stock style Ownership of the MFG, the engineers and QC folks take a back seat to the Accountants and Finance teams.
Every year costs must be shaved to X% of sales to meet budget. The sophisticated groups change product mix or work the supply chain. The rest just slash where they think no one will notice. At least until warranty runs out.
Long Term thinking is Qrt to Qrt. Then the yearend scramble to meet Street expectations.

The mix of RVs is changing. With the popularity of large 3/4 and 1 ton plush family Pickups, towables become a more reasonable alternative. Campers have become less inclined to manage the RV themselves. Motorized RVs are more maintenance intensive, more expensive, harder to manage.
Most full timers are in a Towable of some sort unless they are fortunate enough to have the resources (Money/SKill/Time) to manage an expensive Class A.

RV Market trends see PDF

 

[DennisT]

** At this point, I am not even raising any issues relating to safety defects or other defects that from time to time are ignored (read swept under the carpet). However, in due time.

I do know that at least a couple of the issues we had fixed at the Newmar mothership have resulted in a bunch of meetings as to “how / why” they happened.

Largest one was the missing exhaust in our Oasis system. Wasn’t just not hooked up properly, it was not there at all. So, assembly missed, final QC missed, dealer missed, and our master certified inspector missed.

When we met our service rep for our coach line she mentioned how many meetings and changes were being made as a result of that miss.

A couple of others have led me to make recommendations as to what could be done differently to make things better. Those have been welcomed and passed along for consideration.

Nice to be working with a manufacturer that cares.

No excuse for the issue in the picture posted though. Should have been noticed by the dealer and fixed before being posted at a minimum.

 

[TheLooks]

In houses, we found people took in the whole thing, not focusing on details. My old business partner said the most important thing to get right and finish well is whatever is in front of the toilet. He was not wrong.

 

[Kevin D Pem]

In houses, we found people took in the whole thing, not focusing on details. My old business partner said the most important thing to get right and finish well is whatever is in front of the toilet. He was not wrong.

So let me verify what you just said! When you stand in front of the toilet, you should try to get it right!

 

[DennisT]

So let me verify what you just said! When you stand in front of the toilet, you should try to get it right!

My take is that whatever you can see while sitting on the throne should be finished properly as people will have some time to look at that view more than other places in the house.