Brett Davis from NIRVC on the Covid Crisis

[Neal]

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Interesting video! Thanks @Neal for posting the link. I had a mixed reaction; agreeing with some points and questioning others. Since I don't buy motorhomes from my financial advisor, I'm a little reticent to get my financial advice from an RV salesman.

TJ

 

[Neal]

I highly respect Brett and his message is interesting. While mainly for his employees the other financials were interesting. Obviously this situation is and will be very hard on RV sales for years to come. As I mentioned in another thread, I like buying in crises to get the best deal, I don't think the deals are now as prices and sales have not reacted to the current situation. It will probably take a year before automobile/RV vendors switch to begging status and it becomes a buyers market, maybe this holiday season is when it will start. There certainly will be deals to be had, I think but I also think many that are in responsible mode are in freeze mode right now, okay, speaking only for myself on that Not willing to spend money on anything at the moment as the future is unknown financially and people should preserve and prepare and be responsible.

What I find interesting across the board is how fragile all businesses are. It seems like most cannot go one month without business and survive or be put in some desperate mode. It's like people living paycheck to paycheck but in a business sense. Wishing all the best both personal and business through this crisis and road ahead.

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Obviously this situation is and will be very hard on RV sales for years to come.

Actually, if you follow his logic and American travel habits change as he predicts, the RV sales situation may not suffer nearly as much as other sectors of the economy. If that's the case, there may only be a short window of "good deals" before it becomes a seller's market again.

I concur, @Neal, with your assessment that businesses today are financially fragile. There has been a focus on growth and expansion with a lot of businesses that has left them heavily in debt. If their income stream is negatively affected for even a short period, they are in trouble.

TJ

 

[texskeet]

Brett is a financial advisor for 20 to 30 years. Very very good one. made his clients lots of money.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

A very interesting video! Only time will tell if his observations bear fruit.
But I will say this; His seemingly genuine concern for his employees & customers would give me strong cause to give NIRVC serious consideration when/if I buy another RV!

 

[AbdRahim]

Even outside of a crisis, one of the biggest reasons for business failure in the first five years of business is lack of capital to continue.

How many businesses or individuals (during their working years) have six months of income set aside for bad times?

 

[DKRITTER]

I'm a little reticent to get my financial advice from an RV salesman.

You might be oversimplifying his role at NIRVC a bit.

 

[Neal]

I think as the quarterly results continue to roll in we will now see the decline in the financials and what Brett said in his video is starting to come to light. I had a glimmer of hope on some rallies in the past week but I think the quarterlies are going to start showing reality. Brace yourself and or take action if not too late.

I believe only the strong will survive as it relates to the RV related services, dealers, etc. It's going to be a very interesting year or two ahead where I think we're going to see companies dropping out sadly. Flexsteel is already out but that is one that needed to happen as discussed in that thread (can't do it right then failure is the result).

 

[AbdRahim]

Marketwise there may be a serious decline, a bit lower than the last, but it will come back. Yes, many small businesses will disappear and that is sad, but the economy will recover and some would indicate that the current market pattern would have occurred even without the current crisis. Day traders or short term inverters need be more concern and take defensive action more so than long term investors. I am wondering if the consumer goods sector may see a surge, as warehouse orders are way backlogged and will take a while to restock stores. Those that do survive will need to re-hire and thus will reduce unemployment as we gear back up. IT may be the place to be, as the work from home and meet from home demand continues to rise.

As it is written in the Bible in many places, "and it came to pass". Yes this too will pass.

 

[Neal]

I think the online retailers and the food service that reinvented for carry out and delivery will do fine. Brick and Mortar are going to be stressed, people are viruses now and don't want be near one another.

Berkshire H (Buffet) 50B loss. Ouch! Puts things in perspective and of course that's the media and effing journalists, nothing is lost until sold. But we get it...