.DISCUSSION...
High clouds will continue to move over northern
Arizona tonight in advance of a
trough of low pressure to our
west. This
trough will bring increasing clouds, breezes, and
chances for precipitation (west to east) on Monday. Starting
Monday evening and heading into Christmas Eve showers will become
likely across northern Arizona as the best
moisture and upward
lift from storm
dynamics moves in. Overall the best chance for
showers and higher precipitation amounts will be along and south
of a line extending from Flagstaff to Show low where the deepest
moisture, storm
dynamics and upslope forcing will exist. The snow
level Tuesday looks to be 6000-6500 feet from Flagstaff north and
west and 6500-7500 east of Flagstaff to the New Mexico border. At
this time we are expecting general snow accumulations of 2 to 8
inches above 6500 feet. Higher amounts over the San Francisco
Peaks, White Mountains and portions of the eastern Mogollon Rim.
The first low should clear the state Tuesday evening. Much colder
on Tuesday with the passage of a cold
front with mountain highs in
the 30s, mainly in the 40s at lower elevations.
From Christmas Day Onward...A large
trough over the western
United States will continue to be the big weather producer for
northern Arizona through the long term period.
Showery conditions are expected to continue across the area on
wednesday as weak
shortwave trough will provide
instability and low
level
moisture will be prevalent enough to allow for development
during the daylight hours.
Another deep cut off low is expected to move off the California
coast on Thursday, and begin ejecting more
moisture and
instability
into the region before crossing the Grand Canyon State through this
weekend. While timing and locations vary by model to model,
confidence is building in the potential for more precipitation to
occur through the end of the week and into at least the weekend
under this unstable
flow.
This will be an extended period of cold and
unsettled weather with
periods of snowfall
likely. Stay tuned for the latest weather
updates and plan your holiday travels accordingly.