Interesting post by Brett Davis

[FL-JOE]

Sorry fl joe. For over forty years I participated in several industry groups called twenty groups. We were twenty non-competing dealers spread around the country who shared every financial detail of our stores and in most cases personal life . Even in the best of times dealers never made those kind of numbers. All the so called dealer gurus preached that to stay in business and grow a dealer had to learn to keep four cents of every dollar that comes in the door. I watched a lot of good hardworking dealers go under from failing to keep that small amount. From what my buddies tell me yes today you'd have to be an idiot not to be doing well but i hope the smart ones are using this time to pay off their debts and get financially in shape for the downturn that always comes. I never apologized for my prices or profits.i always felt like i owed my over 250 employees families the stability that comes from working for a financially sound business to know everyday they had a job. I have never seen the highest priced guy go broke but ive seen thousands of the cheapest guy go away.

If a new 2021 5th Wheel going to an RV dealer has an MSRP of $120,000 and the dealer isn't getting it for $70,000 or less, than why in the world would they sell that unit for $81,000? I just made a deal like that plus they threw in some extras, like a Playmaker and maybe $200 worth of other goodies.

 

[Joe Hogan]

Coming from the Dealer Inventory Floorplan industry, Dealers of large ticket items finance their inventory and many times the manufacturer pays the interest on the Floorplan for 6-12 months. Dealer cost of inventory is Zero for a period of time.
Why is this, the Manufacturer needs to move the inventory item from the manufacturer's lot, limited space and no visibility, to the sales lot, even during slow sales periods.
Many times a dealer will sell a unit at cost or slightly higher to get out from under an expiring "Dealer Free" period. A sales that yields 2% on zero investment other than a parking space is a good return.

 

[Wander on]

Thank you for that clear picture of the RV market in May 2021.
So where are we now ? Has the shift begun ??
I'm going to look at 2020 Winnebago Boldt with 9,000 miles on it marked down to $150,000. I thought that sounded reasonable as its' MSRP was around $215,000. ( Dealer probably paid $180,000 ? )
I've been waiting to make a life time investment knowing that the first and probably the second RV will end up being part of my learning curve. A downward trend would help minimize my normal "buy high and sell low ;-)" tradition !!
Thanks again for your insight !

 

[Old-RV'er]

OP-He makes several interesting points, the best one is "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered". His second point is we are near, and I think really close to the crash, in all markets. But, my biggest indicator which points to crash is a computer generated coin, based on nothing, not gold, silver, nothing and it's high price. When crash happens, all and I mean all "fake coins of computer generated markets" are going to be worthless. In our 6000 year history, only two things hve held value, GOLD and SILVER. Historically, stock prices are at historic levels, fuel prices are high, but not as high as they will go, and RE prices are inflated into stratosphere IMHO, house prices in our market have doubled in 5 years, in others, tripled or quadrupled, and that cannot be sustained. The dollar’s value, has declined because of inflation and if you add in the real costs of food and fuel, about 30% annual to date. My taxes will however go up thanks to Brandon and his co-horts, and I don't give a hoot what the party line says (and don’t blame me, I voted for PT). If you remember 2008-2009, the same market forces present now were present then with the exception of housing being more managed, but I would bet that there are lots of dubious RE loans and millions of car/RV loans in the bad to extremely bad levels. My retirement has not gone up any 30% to keep pace. Money talks and all other things walk.

Had, I known two years ago, we would be faced with these internal forces (not to mention external forces) there is no way in heck I would have purchased new RV. It's now for sale, and not much interest, I think reasonable people see the handwriting on the wall, now may not be the time to buy a 200,000+ dollar Motorhome with so much turmoil in all markets, and the future being a fog which cannot be seen through. I agree wholeheartedly with those making that decision. The used lots are going to be full to overflowing soon, when costs to operate RV's (all rvs) start coming to the fore. Like used car prices which are declining, RV prices are going to start after the 1st of the Year to decline, and if things continue to go up (fuel-cost to operate), more people are going to dump (lots of them will just be reposed-no one cares credit will be toast) since just getting out from 800–2500-month payment is more important. So, if in market, waiting for a while is a very prudent position to take. The young working families who have purchased RVs for travel because of COVID lockdowns, etc., are today being squeezed between, caring for family, and keeping fuel in vehicle to get to work. Those same people are going to come up to a wall, and eating and minimum purchases are going to win, the RV will be sold, or let go. Aint no prognosticator, but read statement on money, you have to have it to live, and living is what is going to be important, not luxuries, with RV's being in that category.
May everyone have Happy Thanksgiving and Christmas Season, our travel plans have been eclipsed by other events at this point, unsure if any travel this season.

 

[Wander on]

I can wait ! I am going to rent a few times to see what size I like... Thanks for your insight ! In just the few posts I've read I am learning a lot...

 

[Old-RV'er]

Wander, we have had 5 RV's, no perfect floor plan, or size everything is a compromise, large kitchen, lose LR space, large LR, lose kitchen space. Are you hampered physically? That will make difference on doing setup and teardown prior to travel. Storage compartments in all models are not tall enough, but, that then reduces the height of the house part. My biggest concern today, is driver safety and correct training to drive RV. So if never done so, take a driver safety class because you do not want to hurt you or BH. Renting RV will not give you exactly what you want. They mostly have been USED to death. Will not be like a new one, and to my knowledge won't be able to get 40' in diesel if that is important. Some people rent RV's as way to make income, I personally would not do that, but If I like something or need something enough, I buy it. I would ignore Thor products, quality is very poor unless they have changed in last two years. Winnebego/Newmar are still at top of food chain for quality, but in today's world, that is not a given. Be very careful, and make sure your insurance covers you renting RV, and in case of gotcha. Good Luck.

 

[Wander on]

Thanks to you !
No physical issues and years of trailering experience ( mostly hauling horses ). You're so right about the rentals compared to just getting something new... even just going to the RV shows and walking into the various units gave me an immediate reaction to my question of " Can I live in this space". And where will the dog fit in ?
Like the Winnebago recommendation !
Wander on

 

[Old-RV'er]

Assume you and BH, plus dog, so what size were you thinking? Are you eat at home or eat out lots people? If second, you can get by with smaller kitchen, if eat in, larger kitchen. Skip dishwasher if anything smaller than 40, or you will not have any cabinet/drawer space. We had DW in 40, but biggest kitchen in any MH, NM Ventana 3407 has tiny kitchen, but we make do. But BH complains about what we had, versus what we got. We had nothing but trouble with DW until I paid 145.00 for new part, which fixed most of it's problems. They need to be installed into space perfectly level, or will never work correctly. Some kind of alighment with drawer. IMHO, more trouble than worth, I wash dishes in MH, so, I don't mind doing them, since DW was PIBackside. Love all electric option in ours, no propane to deal with, but, also no real oven, and convection is challange since we use it so infrequently, have to read book every time. Hope they have put lighted panel in new ones, as touch screen is almost impossible to see even in good lighting. Go to dealers lot, and spend time inside models you are considering, and I don't mean 15 minutes, I mean hours if necessary. Try all the appliances as much as thay will allow. Get the STACKED washer and dryer, not whirlpool but splendide brand. You can PM me with other questions, and lots of folks here have as much or more time in RV"s than me, only been doing this since 1983.

 

[Wander on]

Good morning ! My choices are on the smaller size. I'd like a small kitchen ... dog and I don't eat a lot so I can do the dishes. Can hand wash or stop at the occasional laundromat for my clothes so no washer needed. More interested in seeing the sights so dependable , fuel efficient unit. Easy to maneuver... Plenty of battery back up for heat/AC and comfortable living and sleeping space.
25 ' is big enough... Like the Atlas but not the price tag ;-). Thank you for talking to me... you are such a valuable resource . Hope our paths cross one day !
Wander On

 

[Voyageurs]

It will be interesting to see how business models change with the advent of low maintenance EV’s. Suspension and steering components will still need maintenance, but lots of the staples like brakes, exhaust, transmissions, motors, emmision sensors, plugs, oil changes, filter changes, transmission and rear end fluid changes etc etc. That all has to be a significant part of it. EV’s still need tires and even 12 volt batteries etc. But overall a lot less shop time. We are 6 years living with EV’s and other than a tire rotate and 3 or 4 jugs of washer fluid it’s been pretty maintenance free other than a recall inspection on the leaf. Auto parts stores are going to see some changes as well.

Interesting times.