Price of lumber 2021

[Neal]

Buying right back in would not be good, unless you have to. When I was in Austin (outskirts of it) at a CG over new years they were entering into the tiny home market being one of the first, or so they say. It seems that may take off in that area due to whatever is going on. Probably as much as a typical house in other places.

 

["EZ"]

So I wonder, is this going to affect the RV industry?

When the crash happens there will be massive lay offs. The RV industry has ramped up to try to handle the enormous increase in purchases. When the bubble bursts and the market crashes, the sales will STOP not taper off. There will be RV's sitting everywhere. No more buyers. Prices will fall. Used RV's will be worthless because the factories and dealers will be slashing prices on the new ones to get them off their books ASAP. Nobody can afford to pay the floor plan interest on the millions of dollars of inventory some of these dealers normally have.

 

[Texas Clodhopper]

Wow....doom and gloom much. If there wasn't another RV purchased after today, it would take months to come close to stocking dealers with half the inventory they usually carry. The PPL lot, a consignment lot near me has maybe 20% of the normal inventory of used units on their lot. The sticks and bricks market will crash way before the rv market simply because home prices are escalating to the point the majority of folks can't purchase and many of the current owners are selling because they can't afford the taxes. Where do you think they are going to live? The minimum rent on a 2 bedroom apartment in my area is $1700/month plus utilities and house rentals are even more expensive. Our RV's may be worth more if your bubble theory comes to fruition.

 

[FL-JOE]

I wonder how home builders are going to handle this.

They have had to jack their prices of course. Down in Florida new construction prices were going way up in 2020 anyway, this just drove them through the roof in the past few months. It is a ripple effect in the housing market. Existing home prices have been going up which means in most States next years real estate taxes will also rise.

This can't continue and EZ is correct. I think sometime in late 2021 to the middle of 2022 the housing market will take a huge nose dive followed by the RV industry. Three and four year old Newmar and Tiffin DPs will be available for $120,000 to $150,000 for cash buyers.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

The custom home builders in my area, Texas Hill Country, are only giving cost plus a fixed fee estimate. The median sales price of homes in the Austin, TX, area is $412,000, up 22% from last year. The issue is, you can't find one to buy.

We signed a contract to have our house in St. Augustine Fl., back in early May 2020. Our neighbor bought the same house; signed his contract the end of June 2020 (about 45 days later) and it was 11% higher than ours!
This is crazy, but a similarly priced house just went on the market 22% more than what we paid! Market is "plumb crazy"! Though that's a great return on investment in 6 months; but I'm staying where I am; as this is exactly the house I wanted for retirement and RV travel!
I believe the average price in the St. Augustine area is now in the $335,000+ price range. And some of the houses have been around since the 1600-1700's!

Crazy story, but a house about 2 miles from me just SOLD in a "bidding war" for $110,000 more than asking price! Bought over the internet by someone that had not even been in it, but did a "virtual tour"! Now that is really CRAZY!

 

["EZ"]

We had a house locally that had a bidding war started when they put it on the market. The buyer paid $100k more than the asking price! This is exactly the kind of stuff that happens during a housing bubble right before the bottom falls out. It happened in 2007. It took the stock market down with it.

 

[Jim]

My new deck. A couple of hours and $750 worth of lumber. Like it?

 

[GlampDaddy]

What a time to own a chunk of gold (house) in Austin!

We have a house in Austin and just received an obscene offer for it. We didn't even have it listed for sale, but having to rethink that now.

 

[Kevin D Pem]

So I wonder, is this going to affect the RV industry?

Yes! Gas price=inflation=stimulus. Some of the builder buddies have, stopped production.=more unemployment.

 

[Neal]

We have a house in Austin and just received an obscene offer for it. We didn't even have it listed for sale, but having to rethink that now.

I would imagine it's just going to go higher with Elon coming to town and others to likely follow.