100 dollar a barrel oil...again.

[sanda]

OK, twenty five years working oil fields. Sitting in Egypt operating an oil field as I type this. Three weeks into a four week shift, so a bit tired and worn so this may not come out as gentile as normal.
There is no oil shortage. The world is awash with oil, with some players ready to dump even more. It's a market driven commodity. Speculation, transport availability and cost, storage availability and cost, and most IMPORTANTLY demand drive cost.
Energy independence is a balance sheet equation, you have production capability greater than your domestic demand. That doesn't change overnight.
Refiners will always look to buy cheapest crude available for the slate they are booked to sell. buy cheap, sell high. They don't care what flag is on the tanker, or where the cargo came from.
Producers won't invest capital if ROI is not favorable. So even if political winds were favorable, depressed prices arrest new development.
Demand dropped significantly, and quickly due to economic impacts of CV19. As economies rebound, demand is slowly ramping up, but not enough to attract investment yet. As inventory reduces, without production increasing to keep it at same level, prices begin normal market gyrations. The other factors kick in as well.
If you had just taken a severe beating, reduced your staff, idled your kit. How would you act with your product? Most of the industry is trying to stabilize after that beating. Higher prices help their financial situations improve.
Energy policy will affect prices, especially with regards to taxes and costs that are passed through to the consumers. Those politicians that favor green policy want the highest oil prices possible to drive investment in alternative energy sources and users.
The Keystone issue is all smoke and mirrors. That Canadian Crude, is making its way to market via other transport. The pipeline would have made it cheaper to transport, but if the demand dictates it's need a means is always found to get delivery.

Ok, sorry for rant. I will step away from computer........

The other transport for many years has been rail. I know an Engineer in Minnesota who runs one of many trains to and from Canada with tanker cars. These trains run around the clock because of the volume moved South. Seems a pipeline would be more environmental friendly.

 

[sanda]

Statements about the volume of U.S. crude production dropping are not true. If you look at the Petroleum institute site, the U.S. is producing more crude per week than we have since May of 2020.

Some of the price increase points to the rise in demand since the lockdowns. The other is political decisions adversely affecting the whole country, especially poor and middle income families.

 

[billnourse]

I will get no more political than to say, you get what you vote for.

 

[Voyageurs]

I will get no more political than to say, you get what you vote for.

Yep. Thank god for that. .

 

[FL-JOE]

There are over 275 million vehicles registered in the U.S. Around 1.8 million of those are electric. If my math is correct that is way less than 1%. How can anyone truly believe that in 5 or 6 years most of us will be driving electric cars and trucks.

When certain politicians do stupid things for votes there can be far reaching effects on every class of people. Forcing the price of diesel fuel to record highs (which I believe is coming) doesn't only make RVers complain it forces people on fixed incomes to pay a ton more for food and goods.

IMHO the most important election will be held in 15 months. That is what is still so great about our country, we can collectively decide these major issues.

 

[Voyageurs]

There are over 275 million vehicles registered in the U.S. Around 1.8 million of those are electric. If my math is correct that is way less than 1%. How can anyone truly believe that in 5 or 6 years most of us will be driving electric cars and trucks.

When certain politicians do stupid things for votes there can be far reaching effects on every class of people. Forcing the price of diesel fuel to record highs (which I believe is coming) doesn't only make RVers complain it forces people on fixed incomes to pay a ton more for food and goods.

IMHO the most important election will be held in 15 months. That is what is still so great about our country, we can collectively decide these major issues.

5 or 6 years? I have never seen that prediction. The earliest I have seen is 2055 for 70 percent of the vehicles on the road as electric. Who is citing 5 or 6 years?

 

[FL-JOE]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Middle East as electric vehicles begin to take over the market. The sheiks can’t drill for volts and amps, though they do have a pretty good location for solar energy.

TJ

I agree that electric vehicles won't "take over the market" until maybe when our grandkids are grandparents, our possibly longer. It just struck me from some of the other posts that many folks were under the impression that some of us on this forum would live to see that day, which we won't.

 

[Voyageurs]

I agree that electric vehicles won't "take over the market" until maybe when our grandkids are grandparents, our possibly longer. It just struck me from some of the other posts that many folks were under the impression that some of us on this forum would live to see that day, which we won't.

Oh I think in some markets EV’s will dominate by the end of this decade. Norway is already seeing 70 percent EV sales and gas stations are starting to shut down. Other countries are seeing growth at a lesser extent but still in the 30 to 40 percent of new sales area. Even in North American in markets like Quebec, BC, California etc new sales are already at 15 percent of the market and that will triple by the end of this decade. But generally speaking I think in North America you will see gas and diesel vehicles dominate the road for the next few decades.

However, most vehicle manufacturers have already announced that R and D into gas vehicle drive trains by the end of the decade as there is simply no long term future in gas cars and light trucks. Most test driving a gas car and then an EV will buy the EV for obvious reasons. It’s just a matter of availability of product and of the old generation dying off.

 

[FL-JOE]

I'm soon to turn 69. I'm pretty sure when my kids are my age 80% of the vehicles in the U.S. will still be gas and diesel. There could be pockets where electric vehicles get 30% or so of the market, like maybe some parts of California. Now looking ahead two generations it may or may not be mostly electric vehicles. What everyone will be concerned about by 2060 or 2070 will be the shortage of fresh drinking water IMHO.

 

[sanda]

I still don't know how we are going to charge all these electric vehicles while we shutdown our power plants. And don't try to tell me only solar and wind will make up the difference.