COVID-19 (cornavirus) It's affect on our lifestyle

[Old-RV'er]

All, I watch lots of business news, and it occurs to me based on an article I read in today's issue of RV Travel, we are going to have some issues concerning parts and supplies for our units. I took the time to send Newmar Service my concerns. I wont get a reply until next week earliest, but it's something for all of us to think about. Here is what I wrote:

I have some concerns about my service appointment. I have listed them below.

• Currently COVID-19 is spreading throughout the world, china being affected the most, but it’s starting to appear in the USA, and in some animal species. Additionally, 680 Million Chinese workers are told to stay at home, those folks build lots of the RV industry’s parts needed to manufacturer and repair all RV’s, among other business currently being impacted, i.e., Apple, Microsoft, and many others.
• My concern is, when it’s my turn to get up there, are the spare parts going to be available to repair my coach? If they are not, it is senseless for me to take the time, spend the money for fuel, overnights stays, etc. to make the trip.
• Is Newmar going to extend the warranty on my coach to cover these repairs at a later date? If you are not going to extend the warranty to cover these repairs, are you going to fix the things listed in the communications we have made between us currently, at a later time? Are we loyal customers, due to circumstances beyond our control and yours, still going to have a support network?

I know these questions may have come up in some meetings internally to your business model. However, a communique from Newmar to all owners needs to be put out so we know exactly where we are going to land. The supply chain, yours, your suppliers, and other vendors you use may have channels only 3 weeks long. China has been shut down for 3 weeks, and that is going to continue until at least the end of April 2020, and possibly lots longer. I suspect, your spare parts for manufacturer and maintenance and repair of coaches will be very limited, or in some cases out of stock, with no firm timeline to replenish those parts.

Yes, I know fear is driving this whole conservation and the outcomes from it, but, I want to know we have a plan in place and we are still part of the family even though our warranty has expired. Please put information out to owners via all mediums so we know.

Now, hindsight being 20/20, we did this to ourselves because we should have kept those manufacturing and jobs at home, but we chased profits inlu of service and supply, we are as a species going to pay a high price for those mistakes, aside from just the dollar numbers, some of those workers, processes used, tools, and machines to manufacturer parts and whole assemblies, are gone, the workers long gone to retirement or other jobs. It will take at least 12 months to move the manufacturing and reestablish the supply chain back here. Even though the trade war started this process back last year, it should have been wake-up call, so our industry realizes, we got to build it here, regardless of the costs. USA quality is in past been the best in the world, maybe we can achieve this again. I know this is going to stretch our patience and economy to maybe the brink. Articles today on various financial sites are talking recession in the summer lasting into 2021 and possibly beyond. I know for a fact, cummings engine blocks to the tune of 25% total production are cast in china, they closed the foundries here a long time ago. Yes, they have other plants, but all of them are going to be affected. The potential for some business to just close for good is working into the concerns of many of us who own your products.

I appreciate your assistance and help in getting my items scheduled and repaired. I know you and all the staff there work hard to keep us owners taken care of, so thank you in advance for all the assistance.

Sincerely, Me.

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

There are way too many variables and uncertainties in this scenario for Newmar (or any manufacturer) to know the answers to your questions. Life is always uncertain, and right now, it is a bit more uncertain than usual. While being patient is hard, I think that's what it is going to take in the current situation.

TJ

 

[Old-RV'er]

Actually, this has been in the pipeline Since December, and since lots of stuff is built in China for RV's and most major products now a days, Companies are already looking at the ramifications. FWIW-Most if not all the refrigerator and air conditioner compressors/cooling units are made either in Mexico or China. The government is considering closing the southern border even though Mexico has only 4 cases presently. It's the other countries south of Mexico, where no one is talking. Even Brazil has some cases. The problem as I see it, no one is telling us enough information. All Governments LIE, China has about the worse record of not saying anything or not telling the truth. Panic, well, it's more than that, its money, pure and simple.

 

[Old-RV'er]

Amazon sellers struggle to keep products in stock amid coronavirus outbreak

Third-party sellers with Chinese suppliers say factory closures have made it hard to keep products in stock.

www.cnbc.com

Automakers are 'scrambling' for parts and preparing war rooms as coronavirus spreads

Auto companies have established task forces and war rooms to monitor and combat the coronavirus from impacting their manufacturing, supply chains and employees.

www.cnbc.com

Here are two examples of business being worried about the supply chain. And as I believe mentioned above, the "trade war" should have woken up USA Business, they failed to move production back home, and as such, most likely will pay huge consequences. Most financial analysists believe some companies will go out of business, or at least explore the option of bankruptcy. If you aint got it, you cannot sell it, nor repair/fix/replace it.

 

[CaptainGizmo]

On this subject, nothing we say or do is going to help Newmar. Do you really think they aren't considering the ramifications?

The finance world is a mess with fear. If everyone would just calm down and relax...those who actually CAN help, will be able to think more clearly. I have to pull myself in, every day, to do a "reality check" that I'm not the only one with the answer. Do I think the US Customs policy of letting absolute EVERYONE through the airports is insane? Yeah, and I've been criticizing this LONG before we were even worried about Syria. But, I can't do anything about it; I don't have any control or power, only what "I FEEL" is the right way to do it...and I'm sure there are a lot smarter people who've got a different reason for not doing it.

So, many owners will have servicing this year. It'll all be ok. You have to consider the extremely low volume of "items" that you would need during a routine "warranty" service. For example, when I was there, I had a Sony TV replaced. The rest of the things could have been fixed with a trip to the hardware store for parts.

When you make your appointment, you should be providing them with a detailed list of items to be repaired. From this list, they already can build in a "head-start". For example they needed to replace a kitchen window for me. Had this not been preplanned, it would have been MONTHS away. And, by the way, windows are made locally.

We'll be fine. Newmar has always had the Backs of their loyal customers.

 

[turbopilot]

Given the COVID-19 death rate for retirees, spare parts for the RV is not high on my mind.

 

[CaptainGizmo]

Given the COVID-19 death rate for retirees, spare parts for the RV is not high on my mind.

View attachment 1353

Ouch, Turbo...ya had to go there! [emoji2357]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[lostinfla]

The sky if falling!!! Seems like we made it through all the rest.

 

[Akdare]

Except now, just a month after your chart, it’s now 3200 deaths, 92,000 confirmed cases, in 70 countries. We are a much more mobile society now than even a few years ago. I don’t think the sky is falling, but it certainly is a concern. My wife’s immune system is really bad due to medication she had to take for a lung condition. So I have a personal concern as well as for society as a whole.

 

[turbopilot]

This virus event is very confusing for everyone, including medical professionals because it is so new. Based on the natural history of this virus so far those of us in the United States will probably have to live with the uncertainty for at least 6 months. Based on Chinese experience the real risk associated with this disease are for those over 60 and those with pre-existing medical problems. Most other people will just get sick and recover.

Until more is known, my recommendation is that everyone over 60 and all those with a significant medical conditions should exercise social distancing. You will see many definitions of social distancing. Here are mine. The goal is to avoid exposure to this virus until there are better solutions for treatment (vaccines/antivirals) or until the virus burns itself out hopefully in the Summer months (this is not for sure but typical of other coronaviruses).

Social Distancing over age 60 and/or pre-existing medical problems

Stop shaking hands, hugs and kisses.

Stop all indoor public meetings except with people you know to be free of illness. No human encounters closer than 3 to 5 feet

Treat any surface used by others outside your house as contaminated.

Wash hands after any encounter with touch button and touch screens (supermarkets, gas stations)

Stop attending religious meetings (so far a major vector of world wide spread of this virus).

If you live in high density housing (apartments, condos) and have a choice to move to low density housing, move. Wherever possible you want to be around the lowest possible density of other humans.

Avoid airports, bus terminals, train stations and taxi cabs.

Avoid non essential travel. Travel by RV should be safe until you have to stop for provisions. Boondocking on some BLM land is probably the safest place to be.

Even with social distancing the single biggest chance for infection involves routine daily chores like finding food. Plan to limit those trips to a minimum.