Price of lumber 2021

[DHudson]

Friend of mine that does purchases for a trailer manufacture, told me today that a truck
load of plywood that he paid $8,000.00 for six months ago, cost $40,000.00 now.

 

[GypsyR]

I wouldn't be surprised. As part of a reroofing project I had to do, I decided the add a roofed porch instead of our failing deck. The posts I chose to support it cost me like $48 each. Made me grit my teeth right off. But they didn't have all I needed in that store. So I figured I'd get the remainder at the next store over later. Three days later I went to get them, $56 each. I asked if there were a mistake. No, that was right. That was a couple months ago. I went to the same original store and noticed they were $85 each. Sheesh. Original plan for a "porch" has now changed to a roofed concrete patio. We have roof anyway. All the related building materials I've been shopping have gone up but lumber is obscene. Roof couldn't wait though.

We have "mushroom houses" popping up all over. From nothing to cleared land and then suddenly two to six new identical houses all in a row. Everywhere it seems. They are steadily building them as fast as they can. And people are buying them. How they are making the money work is beyond me. I have to wonder how the price of one built two years ago compares to one just finished.

 

[Neal]

I wonder how home builders are going to handle this.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

Had a builder friend tell me that an addition he priced, went from $96,000 to $118,000 in 90 days! Scary!

I do know the home I had built, went up approximately $30,000 in 120 days, because a new neighbor had the same house built, but with a couple minor changes!
Shocked me!

No wonder it is a "sellers" market, at this time!

 

["EZ"]

This price increase in lumber is being matched by the steel industry dollar for dollar. One of the commercial bodies that I sell has included a 20% steel surcharge on top of a 5% price increase at the first of the year. The price of the trucks are going up almost as rapidly too. The stock market is making new all time highs. This is almost exactly like the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 housing bubble. Last week I pulled all our 401K money out of stocks and put them into a money market mutual fund for safety. The crash is coming folks. Better get ready.

 

[Jim]

This price increase in lumber is being matched by the steel industry dollar for dollar.

PVC as well. A 20' long piece of 4" schedule 40 pipe is now over $30!

 

[Neal]

So I wonder, is this going to affect the RV industry?

 

[Texas Clodhopper]

The custom home builders in my area, Texas Hill Country, are only giving cost plus a fixed fee estimate. The median sales price of homes in the Austin, TX, area is $412,000, up 22% from last year. The issue is, you can't find one to buy.

 

[Neal]

The issue is, you can't find one to buy.

What a time to own a chunk of gold (house) in Austin!

 

[Texas Clodhopper]

The problem is you sell and unless you're prepared to move away you have to reinvest your sell price plus more out-of-pocket $$$ if you want to upgrade. Taxes are causing many long-term owners to sell. Unfortunately, many are taking up the full-time RV lifestyle. Crazy times we're in. With Kalyfornians coming here by truckloads, the housing shortage is not going to improve in the near term.

 

[Neal]

Buying right back in would not be good, unless you have to. When I was in Austin (outskirts of it) at a CG over new years they were entering into the tiny home market being one of the first, or so they say. It seems that may take off in that area due to whatever is going on. Probably as much as a typical house in other places.

 

["EZ"]

So I wonder, is this going to affect the RV industry?

When the crash happens there will be massive lay offs. The RV industry has ramped up to try to handle the enormous increase in purchases. When the bubble bursts and the market crashes, the sales will STOP not taper off. There will be RV's sitting everywhere. No more buyers. Prices will fall. Used RV's will be worthless because the factories and dealers will be slashing prices on the new ones to get them off their books ASAP. Nobody can afford to pay the floor plan interest on the millions of dollars of inventory some of these dealers normally have.

 

[Texas Clodhopper]

Wow....doom and gloom much. If there wasn't another RV purchased after today, it would take months to come close to stocking dealers with half the inventory they usually carry. The PPL lot, a consignment lot near me has maybe 20% of the normal inventory of used units on their lot. The sticks and bricks market will crash way before the rv market simply because home prices are escalating to the point the majority of folks can't purchase and many of the current owners are selling because they can't afford the taxes. Where do you think they are going to live? The minimum rent on a 2 bedroom apartment in my area is $1700/month plus utilities and house rentals are even more expensive. Our RV's may be worth more if your bubble theory comes to fruition.

 

[FL-JOE]

I wonder how home builders are going to handle this.

They have had to jack their prices of course. Down in Florida new construction prices were going way up in 2020 anyway, this just drove them through the roof in the past few months. It is a ripple effect in the housing market. Existing home prices have been going up which means in most States next years real estate taxes will also rise.

This can't continue and EZ is correct. I think sometime in late 2021 to the middle of 2022 the housing market will take a huge nose dive followed by the RV industry. Three and four year old Newmar and Tiffin DPs will be available for $120,000 to $150,000 for cash buyers.

 

[Jabber Jaw]

The custom home builders in my area, Texas Hill Country, are only giving cost plus a fixed fee estimate. The median sales price of homes in the Austin, TX, area is $412,000, up 22% from last year. The issue is, you can't find one to buy.

We signed a contract to have our house in St. Augustine Fl., back in early May 2020. Our neighbor bought the same house; signed his contract the end of June 2020 (about 45 days later) and it was 11% higher than ours!
This is crazy, but a similarly priced house just went on the market 22% more than what we paid! Market is "plumb crazy"! Though that's a great return on investment in 6 months; but I'm staying where I am; as this is exactly the house I wanted for retirement and RV travel!
I believe the average price in the St. Augustine area is now in the $335,000+ price range. And some of the houses have been around since the 1600-1700's!

Crazy story, but a house about 2 miles from me just SOLD in a "bidding war" for $110,000 more than asking price! Bought over the internet by someone that had not even been in it, but did a "virtual tour"! Now that is really CRAZY!

 

["EZ"]

We had a house locally that had a bidding war started when they put it on the market. The buyer paid $100k more than the asking price! This is exactly the kind of stuff that happens during a housing bubble right before the bottom falls out. It happened in 2007. It took the stock market down with it.

 

[Jim]

My new deck. A couple of hours and $750 worth of lumber. Like it?

 

[GlampDaddy]

What a time to own a chunk of gold (house) in Austin!

We have a house in Austin and just received an obscene offer for it. We didn't even have it listed for sale, but having to rethink that now.

 

[Kevin D Pem]

So I wonder, is this going to affect the RV industry?

Yes! Gas price=inflation=stimulus. Some of the builder buddies have, stopped production.=more unemployment.

 

[Neal]

We have a house in Austin and just received an obscene offer for it. We didn't even have it listed for sale, but having to rethink that now.

I would imagine it's just going to go higher with Elon coming to town and others to likely follow.