CA strikes again with CARB ACT

[turbopilot]

I'm not just going to uproot my entire family and livelihood because of some whacked out liberal politician though. Praying for change!

I get it. It is hard to leave a place you have been for so long.

We just moved from California to Prescott, AZ. Prescott is a big California refugee camp. Unbelievable what is going on here. Yavapai County could not be more red. We live North of Prescott in an area where most houses have RV garages in gated communities. Everything is on sale here in Arizona. Electricity is less the 1/3 the cost in California, real estate taxes 50% of California and income tax with a very, very low marginal rate. When you add it all up, for most people, a move from California to Arizona, net of taxes and high costs basically gives you a free, very nice house to live in.

Weather seems to be the biggest magnet holding people in California but we have found Prescott at 5,000 msl to be a very comfortable year around climate. Come take a look. But don't tell anyone else.

 

[Neal]

Reminder ALL - leave politics and associations out of this discussion and forum please. This is a government mandate and situation but we can leave the red, blue, conservative, whatever out. Let's keep this factual based on the mandate, or attempt thereof, what we learn about it, how it affects us, how it can be handled or mitigated, etc. No politics please, cleanup your posts as needed.

Thank you!

 

[Voyageurs]

Whichever integrator takes a tesla semi and makes a Super C out of it first wins. Elons semi factory will be ramping within about 18 months. It will be interesting to see who is first thru that door. Sooner or later someone is going to do it. Maybe Newmar. Who knows.

 

[Neal]

It's coming, sometime or another, Earth or Mars - Love it! Don't underestimate that guy! If they can land a rocket on a lift count me in for an order. We really need to solve the EV toad problem.

 

[Jim]

Elon has replace Howard Hughes in my hero department! But this whole EV thing is like putting the cart out in front of the horse. I won't beat on that poor dead horse here, but I think the argument of a dilapidated grid is a very valid concern.

So with that said, here's my perspective of a day in the life of the average citizen 10-years from now.

_________________________________________________________________​

It’s 2034. The average day in America starts with a handful of people frantically checking their energy apps to see if their EVs charged overnight or if the "rolling charge caps" kicked in. In order to manage demand, most cities now use scheduled charging windows. Unless you’re paying premium rates for priority access, there’s a good chance your EV got a “partial” charge during low-demand hours.

You’re lucky if your drive to work doesn’t start with an alert: "Please charge soon—range may be limited due to grid restrictions." Good times. Employers have tried to help out with charging stations at work, but many are capped or restricted because businesses have their own energy quotas. Solar panels on buildings help, but they’re often too little too late when peak hours roll in.

Residential areas face "energy-saving windows" to keep the grid from collapsing, where power’s reduced or cut altogether for an hour or two. Imagine needing to charge your EV in between washing dishes and doing a load of laundry, all before the “power pause” hits. And you’d better hope the weather’s mild; extreme temperatures make the whole system extra touchy. Hot summer? Expect rolling blackouts. Cold winter? Same story.

Gas stations? They’re still around but mostly to supply delivery vehicles, emergency services, and a small but committed base of internal combustion drivers who held onto their “classics.” Fuel prices are sky-high because traditional fuel is now a luxury.

Over time, the demand for better batteries and renewable energy has ramped up, but that growth was only enough to keep the ship from sinking, not to bring any real relief. People have gotten savvy, though, home batteries, solar panels, and energy management systems are common for folks who can afford them, turning them into mini power grid managers. “Energy resilience” has gone from a luxury to a necessity.

So, while EVs have definitely become mainstream, the average day in America revolves around navigating a complex, sometimes finicky system to keep everything charged and running.

Who knew the future could feel so much like making it through a North Carolina storm with candles and a generator?

 

[Neal]

There needs to be change and that change can and will have to come in various forms from improving the energy supply and accepting change in how we know things today. While I hate this CARB act stuff, long term it may have merit and teach us that some change is needed and we need to keep working in a direction of improvements. I'm not really smart on it so I'm not going to act like I know what needs to be improved, but most of us don't like change. I can hardly stand the yearly iPhone changes now! A.G.E. syndrome in full affect!

 

[turbopilot]

There needs to be change and that change can and will have to come in various forms from improving the energy supply and accepting change in how we know things today. While I hate this CARB act stuff, long term it may have merit and teach us that some change is needed and we need to keep working in a direction of improvements. I'm not really smart on it so I'm not going to act like I know what needs to be improved, but most of us don't like change. I can hardly stand the yearly iPhone changes now! A.G.E. syndrome in full affect!

The change can only happen when the recharge infrastructure is in place. To serve an electric class A every Love's and Flying J's location would need enough high powered charging stations to serve the slower charge cycle time (compared to topping off with diesel). That infrastructure would take years to put in place, but more importantly who is going to pay for it?

Just banning current technology without an immediate, viable substitute is stupid. Wishing something will change does not make it happen. CARB has a philosophy that if you ban it, the change will happen. It does not work that way.

 

[Neal]

Change has to begin and that infrastructure has to begin to take form. I believe that is about to start.

 

[Voyageurs]

It's coming, sometime or another, Earth or Mars - Love it! Don't underestimate that guy! If they can land a rocket on a lift count me in for an order. We really need to solve the EV toad problem.

I still think Rivian will revisit the EV toad problem. In my opinion it’s more a liability problem than a technical one.

Jmho.

 

[turbopilot]

Change has to begin and that infrastructure has to begin to take form. I believe that is about to start.

Any ban has to be in harmony with the rest of the country. Nobody is going to buy an electric Class A only to use in California. CARB diesel ban is complete in 11 years. Do you really think any of the red states will ban diesel in that time frame? Diesel will be banned when EV's are economically competitive. For big vehicles, nationwide that will take more than 11 years for most of the country.

Here are the CARB deadlines:

The deadline for the CARB diesel ban depends on what type of vehicle you're referring to:

For medium- and heavy-duty trucks:

• Sales ban: No new diesel trucks can be sold in California starting in 2036.
• Drayage trucks: All drayage trucks entering seaports and intermodal railyards must be zero-emission by 2035.
• State and local government fleets: Must purchase 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2024, and 100% by 2027.
  

For off-road vehicles:

• Tier 3 engines: Banned from being added to fleets starting January 1, 2024.
• Tier 4 Interim engines: Banned from being added to large and medium fleets starting January 1, 2024.
  

It's important to note that these deadlines are part of larger regulations aimed at phasing out diesel vehicles in California. For more detailed information, you can refer to the following resources:

• CARB's website: This is the official source for information on all CARB regulations, including the diesel ban. You can find it at Homepage | California Air Resources Board.
• Overdrive Online: This trucking industry publication has articles and analysis on the CARB diesel ban. You can find their coverage at Home.
• ZeroRig:This website focuses on zero-emission transportation and has information on the CARB diesel ban.

 

[turbopilot]

One more issue of merit. A diesel truck ban is all about the owner operators of big rig over the road trucks in interstate commerce. Class A RV's are just a blip against the big picture. For owner operators they typically expect 1,000,000 miles and/or 10 to 12 years of service life out of their rigs. That means in order to meet the CARB deadlines owner operators beginning right now need to make a decision between ICE or EV trucks. So while 2036 looks a long way away, it is now for those operators who have to replace a rig now.

 

[MemoriesByTheMile]

Tesla has been a disrupter and I give them kudos for doing that. Elon is optimistic about how soon he can make something happen.

Tesla has the name recognition for the electric semi, but other vendors are also delivering electric semis, in higher volume than Tesla. Freightliner and Volvo have trucks on the road and i think Kenworth may also have an electric model.

I am a big fan of electric vehicles for certain use cases, but don’t believe that they are the best for all situations. We have an electric car and a gas car and the diesel coach.

Until batteries get cheaper and faster to charge, the electric RV will not be cost effective or fit our use case and how we drive (hundreds of miles a day while en route).

Once batteries are cheaper and deployed everywhere this will help alleviate some of the concerns around charging infrastructure but still need much more work. Some of the biggest energy consumers in our culture, data centers, are working to find new ways to source energy.

Like the recent history of the Kansas City Chiefs football team - winning at electric trucks/RVs will not sit on one person’s shoulders but will be a team effort where everyone is an important part.

I believe we will eventually win at this transition, but we will probably “win ugly”, won’t be simple, won’t be easy, won’t look like we thought it would look when we started, the scope of what will change will be different but we will end up with another “W”.

 

[turbopilot]

I believe we will eventually win at this transition, but we will probably “win ugly”, won’t be simple, won’t be easy, won’t look like we thought it would look when we started, the scope of what will change will be different but we will end up with another “W”.

But the bigger question is why we need the transition now for RV's before EV RV's are competitive. There is no compelling reason to kill ICE RV's now and let other ICE vehicles continue. It is a California squeeze play hitting a small market segment without much political clout to make a point. Just like progressively banning portable and RV generators by 2028. It is estimated RV's are responsible for .084% of the total US transportation global emissions. That is the definition of an ugly win.

 

[MemoriesByTheMile]

But the bigger question is why we need the transition now for RV's before EV RV's are competitive. There is no compelling reason to kill ICE RV's now and let other ICE vehicles continue. It is a California squeeze play hitting a small market segment without much political clout to make a point. Just like progressively banning portable and RV generators by 2028. It is estimated RV's are responsible for .084% of the total US transportation global emissions. That is the definition of an ugly win.

Totally agree that this will be ugly. Fully expect them to realize they need to make an exception or adjustment as this segment of the market doesn’t have any real volume alternative choices…yet. But they won’t easily give in, will probably take lawsuits and lots of time before they compromise.

In the meantime, lots of dealerships and sales people will start losing money/jobs. Only bright side in the short term is that new units on the lot may be seen at a premium and market for recent model year used may see an uptick in value.

 

[turbopilot]

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Toyota Says CARB EV Mandates for 2026 Are ‘Impossible’ to Meet: Report​

 

[Voyageurs]

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Toyota Says CARB EV Mandates for 2026 Are ‘Impossible’ to Meet: Report​

That’s not true. Tesla, Rivian, Hyundai and others are having no problem meeting and exceeding the requirements. Toyota is just a decade behind in technology development. Same as Stellantis.

 

[redbaron]

Comparing Tesla and rivian to the same as Toyota is laughable. Toyota is the #1 manufacturer in the world.

Hyundai was 4, but is projected to slip back to 6.

Honda, GM, VW, Mercedes all are joining Toyota in pushing back. BMW has lost so much loyalty from owners no one seems to care what they do, but it is notable that the X7 remains ICE and is a hot seller for them.

 

[Voyageurs]

Comparing Tesla and rivian to the same as Toyota is laughable. Toyota is the #1 manufacturer in the world.

Hyundai was 4, but is projected to slip back to 6.

Honda, GM, VW, Mercedes all are joining Toyota in pushing back. BMW has lost so much loyalty from owners no one seems to care what they do, but it is notable that the X7 remains ICE and is a hot seller for them.

I don’t know. The number one selling vehicle in the world is electric. The tesla model Y. I’m sure if Toyota gets serious about it they can design vehicles that they can sell in the US. Tesla does. Rivian does. Hyundai does. Saying it’s impossible is laughable. Lots of companies are doing it. It’s just Toyota that can’t.

And if Toyota can’t do it they should just cede the market to companies that can.

 

[turbopilot]

That’s not true. Tesla, Rivian, Hyundai and others are having no problem meeting and exceeding the requirements. Toyota is just a decade behind in technology development. Same as Stellantis.

As I read the story Toyota is focusing on the 2026 CARB market share mandate of 35% EV's. This year California is around 25% while the entire nation is 9% market share. All this with a backdrop of year over year EV market growth slowing. Obviously, this varies by manufacturer but Toyota is saying the industry trends are not favorable to make the mandate. Toyota is a big company. I think they probably understand the facts as well as any company. Without changes it does appear Toyota with join FreightLine and Spartan not selling new vehicles into California.

 

[Voyageurs]

As I read the story Toyota is focusing on the 2026 CARB market share mandate of 35% EV's. This year California is around 25% while the entire nation is 9% market share. All this with a backdrop of year over year EV market growth slowing. Obviously, this varies by manufacturer but Toyota is saying the industry trends are not favorable to make the mandate. Toyota is a big company. I think they probably understand the facts as well as any company. Without changes it does appear Toyota with join FreightLine and Spartan not selling new vehicles into California.

Growth is slowing but not sales. EV sales continue to grow the world over, including the US and Canada.

ICE sales are losing market sales though. Toyota just started R and D too late. Now toyota is so far behind they think they are first.