Not the time to buy.

[redbaron]

I am "trying" to buy an RV for my property. I have a pretty open mind as to what I want, and was willing to consider used or new.

My budget is < $250k with the only criteria is that it has to be a good deal. Most of what I have been looking at is Travel Trailers < $60k, and a few purpose built "destination trailers". What I have found to be true is that used are selling for almost retail NADA ( not suggested retail based on used, but original retail). It is so insane the way these things are priced.

I don't think anyone is buying at these rates, but the word has gotten out there that used prices are outrageous, so everything is being listed very high.

I started looking at new, and found that dealers are adding to MSRP --not taking away. This is not true of all dealers, or all models, but the few higher end ones that I want are priced that way. A dealer in Missoula, MT gave me a price on a custom order Grand Design -- only $10k over MSRP of $68k -- asking $79500, but I had to act now.

The same trailer is being marketed by LazyDays for $14k under MSRP, which would be a good starting point in a typical market, but at this time it is an absolute steal of a deal!

I am now considering selling my Dutch star, and then putting what I get aside and buying a ForeTravel IH45 or a newell when the economy goes the other direction.

 

[Neal]

Per your title, that is correct. From what I hear I think near the end of this year this is going to flip flop. Sell as soon as you can then wait 6 months if you can.

 

[sheridany]

Both Foretravel and Newell are great coaches. The used market is still strong. Used book values are rising which is really unusual given history. At some point, the market will change and my bet is there will be good deals to be had. My guess is early to mid next year given the backlog of unbuilt orders yet to be produced at best.

Thor Industries
Record earnings per share for the third quarter were $3.29 per diluted share, an increase of 665.1% as compared to $0.43 per diluted share in the same period of the prior year.
- Consolidated RV backlog as of April 30, 2021 was $14.32 billion, an increase of nearly 550% over RV backlog as of April 30, 2020.

 

[Neemer]

- Consolidated RV backlog as of April 30, 2021 was $14.32 billion, an increase of nearly 550% over RV backlog as of April 30, 2020.

I can’t even get my head around those numbers.

Although, I see a metric buttload of new rigs around me. New RVs being pulled by new trucks. I even saw one new truck/Rv combo with two brand new kayaks affixed.

 

[sheridany]

The demand is unprecedented is what long time industry veterans tell me. I think this article that Brett Davis wrote sums it up better than anyone can explain the market phenomenon. There are multiple factors going on that has contributed to the RV market we see today but it cannot last forever. If the economy should tumble, those backlog orders will dissipate quickly. The Fed says they won’t raise rates until 2023 so until then money is “cheap” relatively which is a strong incentive to buy. I agree with what @Neal says. Sell now if you are going to sell and buy later.

Interesting post by Brett Davis

A couple of posts in this thread struck a chord with me on a subject I’ve obsessed over since purchasing my first coach in 1985. In the “FWIW Column” I’ll share a few of my thoughts, and hopefully I’m offering up some additional “food for thought” when it comes to the “brain drain” of purchasing...

rvforums.com

 

[FLSteve]

I am now considering selling my Dutch star, and then putting what I get aside and buying a ForeTravel IH45 or a newell when the economy goes the other direction.

@redbaron ... why did you have to put this thought into my head.

FLSteve

 

["EZ"]

Talking to one of my Dealers yesterday at lunch when he told me of a customer that bought a 2020 Ford F450 from him for $80,000 last year. He came down from PA. to GA. to pick it up. They called him to see if everything was going OK with the truck and to see if he was interested in trading it in. The guy said he MIGHT be willing to trade it so the Commercial guy I deal with got with the used vehicle manager to get a price for the customer. They offered him $92,000 for it!!!! Yes, that's $12,000 more than he paid for it last year!!

But here's the REST of the story...............the customer didn't take the offer!! His local dealer offered him $94,000 for it so he sold it to his local dealer in PA!!

Tell me the world isn't upside down right now...............

 

[FLSteve]

And here is the latest from Brett Davis ...

The transcript is posted here:

https://www.aimclub.org/post/rvs-the...u-updated-2021

 

["EZ"]

I couldn't watch it. He talks WAAAAAAAY to slow and too monotone. I couldn't do it. He should really think about hiring a spokes person............

 

[CaptainGizmo]

I couldn't watch it. He talks WAAAAAAAY to slow and too monotone. I couldn't do it. He should really think about hiring a spokes person............

LOL...me too...every time!
And OF COURSE he has the perfect spokesperson...ANGIE!!
Then again, if you're ever in need of falling asleep, Brett's your man.

 

[Texas Clodhopper]

Brett spoke Texan and y'all are just listening too fast.

 

[J&JD]

@redbaron ... why did you have to put this thought into my head.

FLSteve

Just curious? I know Foretravel is a well built coach, but are they not built on Spartan with the same def head issue?
Judy D

 

[John&Andrea]

Brett spoke Texan and y'all are just listening too fast.

???

 

[MemoriesByTheMile]

It was an interesting listen for me. He put a lot of thought into it and would only disagree with a couple technical points in his discussion.

I agree that the value of used coaches has risen enough to offset a bunch of depreciation - check. But then he went on to compare that to the MSRP 1% increase on a new coach, instead of comparing to how much a new coach sells for now. The out the door discounts that were there 2 years ago don’t appear to be the same today. However, that is just a technicality as i don’t believe the delta between used and new is much smaller than it used to be - which was his overall point.

Not accustomed to listening to Texas drawl - my mind was racing ahead and around all sorts of things while waiting for the next word to be uttered. ?

 

[Neemer]

I find Brett fascinating to listen to. He provides insight that only an industry insider can, and I never feel like I’m being pitched anything. IMHO, if the rest of the RV corporate world would come out of hiding and speak directly to end users, there would be far less gnashing of teeth, and far more goodwill.

 

["EZ"]

Brett spoke Texan and y'all are just listening too fast.

That must be it!!!

 

[TJ&LadyDi]

Just curious? I know Foretravel is a well built coach, but are they not built on Spartan with the same def head issue?
Judy D

Yes, they are on the Spartan K4 chassis with the 605 HP Cummins X15 engine, so they may well have the same DEF head issue. If I were buying a coach (which I definitely am not), I would be looking for a used pre-DEF model.

TJ

 

[Terrie]

I couldn't watch it. He talks WAAAAAAAY to slow and too monotone. I couldn't do it. He should really think about hiring a spokes person............

 

[Terrie]

I watch most informational videos on 1.5 or double speed. Chrome extension Video Speed Controller.

 

[redbaron]

This is really fun to go back and read what I had posted. The thought of selling my 2019 DSDP began here on this thread. It wasn't a month later that I decided to go for it and buy a New 2022 London Aire.

@FLSteve joined me in selling.

I also ended up buying a grand design travel trailer in Texas that will be heading to Montana this summer.

So it appears I cannot take my own advice...I bought 2 during this "not the time to buy" period.

Hopefully I am not posting regrets here next year.